Probably not. But they aren't affected by the previous N climbs, at least as described by GP post. They are considering a fixed odds event, and the probability of (bad thing happens) over a sample path through time. That's not the turkey fallacy.
In other words , the difference between the turkey and the climber is the climber knows the odds (at least nominally) , and it’s important .
In other words , the difference between the turkey and the climber is the climber knows the odds (at least nominally) , and it’s important .