[twobitshifter]

True but it would be incorrect to assume that you can safely keep basejumping every day in a year, just because you haven’t died in the last 50 days. Eventually the stats say you will be 87% likely to have an accident when you consider your choice at the beginning of the year. It might be day 20 or day 300, but you won’t know what case you end up in. The chance of your next jump being your last is always the same, but that doesn’t decrease the risk of repeated trials.

[jrochkind1]

Not exactly. If you've done it 50 days without an accident, your current chances of the accident happening in the remainder of the year are NOW less than 87%.

If you've made it Jan 1 to July 1 months without an accident, the chances of you making it to Dec 31 are now better than they were on Jan 1 -- because now they are just the chances of you making it six months, not a year.

The chances of flipping 6 heads in a row are 1/64. But if I've already flipped 3 in a row... the chances of flipping three _more_ heads in a row is 1/8, the same as always for flipping 3 heads in a row. The ones that already happened don't effect your future chances.

[twobitshifter]

I meant to say starting a new year after the 50 past days, I see that wasn’t clear though.