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by kqr
1594 days ago
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That is a much narrower view of the Kelly criterion than the general concept. The general idea is about choosing an action that maximises the expected logarithm of the result. In practise this means, among other things, not choosing an action that gets you close to "ruin", however you choose to measure the result. Another way to phrase it is that the Kelly criterion leads to actions that avoid large losses. |
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
"The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate"
In real life people often choose to make bets smaller than the Kelley bet. Part of that is that even if you have a good model there are still "unknown unknowns" that will make your model wrong some of the time. Also most people aren't comfortable with the sharp ups and downs and probability of ruin you have with Kelley.