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by rossnordby 1601 days ago
I'm not aware of any great data on myopericarditis for very young people, and not as many have been vaccinated, so I extrapolate from older age groups:

Of 3 482 295 individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), 48 developed myocarditis or myopericarditis within 28 days from the vaccination date compared with unvaccinated individuals (adjusted hazard ratio 1.34 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 2.00); absolute rate 1.4 per 100 000 vaccinated individuals within 28 days of vaccination (95% confidence interval 1.0 to 1.8)). -https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068665

Among more than 2.5 million vaccinated HCO members who were 16 years of age or older, 54 cases met the criteria for myocarditis. The estimated incidence per 100,000 persons who had received at least one dose of vaccine was 2.13 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56 to 2.70). The highest incidence of myocarditis (10.69 cases per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 6.93 to 14.46) was reported in male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. A total of 76% of cases of myocarditis were described as mild and 22% as intermediate; 1 case was associated with cardiogenic shock. After a median follow-up of 83 days after the onset of myocarditis, 1 patient had been readmitted to the hospital, and 1 had died of an unknown cause after discharge. -https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2110737

So vaccine-related myopericarditis looks rare and mild. Effectively, and possibly literally, no one dies as a result. I actually ended up with a probable case after my second dose, but it was extremely mild (no functional impairment, just periodic discomfort for some months). I suspect most cases are something similar- not fun, but not spooky. I'm not a doctor nor do I have any relevant specialty, but I'm reasonably sure that reducing incidence of MIS-C or other rare severe outcomes of covid is a net win in younger people.

1 comments

I saw a comment here recently with data that showed the rates for myocarditis for both covid and vaccinations respectively, I recall the chance of developing myocarditis after vaccination being 4x lower than after getting covid.

Assuming that's right (perhaps someone more knowledgeable can provide a source), this seems to imply that vaccination reduces the risk of developing myocarditis by 4x, assuming everyone will eventually be infected.

I'm also curious what effect age has on the risk in both cases, ie. if the same ratio holds for young people.

I believe that is correct. I don't have a great source handy, but here's a preprint which agrees:

Conclusions: Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young males. Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34341797/

Not sure about ratio age dependency. My prior would be that it is similar, since I don't have any reason to suspect otherwise. Still not a doctor or biologist though :P