[solarmist]

I'm skeptical it'll replace programmers, as in no more human programmers, but agree in the sense 100% human programmers -> 50%, 25%, 10% human programmers + computers doing most of the writing of actual code.

I see it continuing to evolve and becoming a far superior auto-complete with full context, but, short of actual general AI, there will always be a step that takes a high-level description of a problem and turns it into something a computer can implement.

So while it will make the remaining programmers MUCH more productive, thereby reducing the needed number of programmers, I can't see it driving that number to zero.

[mabub24]

It will probably change the types of things a programmer does, and what it looks like to be a programmer. The nitty gritty of code writing will probably get more and more automated. But the architecture of the code, and establishing and selecting it's purpose in the larger scheme of a business, will probably be more what programmers do. Essentially, they might just become managers for automated code writers, similar to the military's idea of future fighter pilots relating to autonomous fighters/drones as described in this article:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/24/the-rise-of-ai...

Maybe. It might never get to that level though.

[solarmist]

Yup, I think that's it exactly. I just described this in another comment as a reverse of the evolution that graphic design has undergone in bringing them into programming front-ends.

I can't wait to see how far we're able to go down that path.