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>"Government posters can say "if you go outside, you have an x% change of having coronavirus, [...]" //

Couple of problems with this. People suck at maths. They also such at comparative risk analysis.

Also, you fight pandemics at the country/region level. Like some people will vote for whoever reduces their tax bill regardless of the actual outcome, some people will go out and mix with others in a pandemic if their own personal risk is low (or appears to them to be low).

Then you have the problem of trusting government. For example, here in the UK evidence suggests ministers in the Tory party used mask buying to funnel > £8Billion extra to friends and associates by having them pretend to be PPE suppliers and then sending them money for orders that were either simply not fulfilled or were fulfilled with unusable product (did they send it back, no, because it achieved the goal!). Now, you want us to trust those same people bit to lie on posters that modify human behaviour at a country-level?

Epidemiological responders only hope is to simplify and be cautious, try to prevent the government perverting the message to their own ends too much.