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by johnp271 1593 days ago
Does the McNamara Fallacy have any application to our response to COVID? I often hear pundits of all sorts, medical doctors, epidemiologists, politicians, CDC scientists, etc, make statements such as "the data shows this" and "the data says that" and then follow up with "therefore the science says we must all do such-and-such". I hold a rather narrow, rigorous - maybe closed minded - opinion of what is 'science' (so to me 'social science' is an oxymoron) thus I have a degree of skepticism when data analysis is relied on to heavily for making conclusions that are then called 'scientific'.
2 comments

> Does the McNamara Fallacy have any application to our response to COVID?

In my opinion, yes. Many politicians and media are fixated on stats like "Covid cases" whereas society depends on multiple variables to function including the health of the economy, mental health and social cohesion of the population, people having hope for the future, the freedom to make choices for yourself, and people being able to exercise and not living unhealthy lives, etc.

> "the data shows this" and "the data says that"

This kind of objective data is generally science.

> "therefore the science says we must all do such-and-such"

This kind of thing is a policy or risk-management decision being wrongly conflated as science.

More like the data about COVID is used as fig leaf for metrics in other areas actually driving the decisions, or ideology/dogma.

If you go with hard data and experience, you'd do hard moves like China (and many other asian countries did). In fact, similar moves have been done in the past in Europe (on the communist side of Iron Curtain) to stop epidemics, including even manual contact tracing.

But because a non-trivial force in decision making has strong other incentives, and because of dogma like disbelief in aerosol transmission, we end up with really bad decisions with fig leaf of data analysis.

> because of dogma like disbelief in aerosol transmission

It's not just that COVID can spread via aerosol. It's more so that the western world extrapolated the definition via a study on TB, neglecting that TB needed to infect deep in the lungs.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwu...

There is a scientific paper version of this, btw.