[joshuamorton]

So can you explain something to me:

We know how many people die of non-covid viral induced pneumonia in a normal year (and in a bad year). Most of it is caused by the flu. We also know that covid policies have demonstrably reduced flu rates to some of the lowest ever over the past few years.

So what other cause of viral induced pneumonia do you suppose is the one killing everyone?

[ya_throw]

I already did. We will never be able to find out how many people specifically died of Covid, and how many died of a viral pneumonia, thanks to the changes in death reporting guidelines that I linked.

I find it absurd to believe that flu "went away" - do you have any evidence for that?

[joshuamorton]

> We will never be able to find out how many people specifically died of Covid, and how many died of a viral pneumonia, thanks to the changes in death reporting guidelines that I linked.

What do you think causes viral pneumonia? If you get in a car crash and bleed out and die, they put both "massive hemorrhage" and "vehicle accident" on your death certificate. If you die of covid-induced viral pneumonia, they put both on your death certificate, because the covid is what caused the pneumonia. You're trying to draw a distinction where there isn't one. Deaths from covid-induced viral pneumonia are deaths from covid, in exactly the same way that deaths from car-crash induced massive bleeding are deaths from a car crash.

> I find it absurd to believe that flu "went away" - do you have any evidence for that?

See https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm#anchor_16336269..., notably the heading "Are there other metrics that can be used to compare the 2020-2021 flu season with past seasons?", which shows a table. That table compares the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Essentially they tested around the same number of specimens and the incidence of influenza was 1000x lower.

This is probably the most accurate datapoint, other things match up (such as reported hospitalizations also being ~100x lower than the year prior) but those are more prone to accidental misclassification of flu-as-covid. You can't really screw up a test in the same way. But generally speaking, they were low enough that the CDC couldn't actually calculate the likely impact, it was too low to make reasonable predictions about. This year it's higher, but still 10x less than a normal year.

(the reason for this is also straightforward: covid-19 variants are generally more contagious than the flu, so mask and social-distancing policies that are somewhat effective at reducing covid transmission are vastly more effective at reducing influenza transmission)

[ya_throw]

>What do you think causes viral pneumonia?

Clue's in the name. A respiratory virus, of which there are many.

>covid-19 variants are generally more contagious than the flu, so mask and social-distancing policies that are somewhat effective at reducing covid transmission are vastly more effective at reducing influenza transmission

Apparently common colds and the like are even more contagious than Covid-19, as the country where I live has had a mask mandate since September 2020 and I have been ill numerous times with regular sniffles and colds.

I take your point with the data you provided (although there's no information on sampling methods and thus the statistical significance of those numbers. We also don't have a similar data point for the UK), but it's a stretch to attribute it to masks and social control measures. I'm not in the US, but I don't think that policies have changed much over the past year - yet flu is back this winter.

[joshuamorton]

> Clue's in the name. A respiratory virus, of which there are many.

So again, if not covid, what other thing is causing the extreme spike in viral phenomena deaths? Is it some other novel virus that no one noticed or did we suddenly become more susceptible to the common cold?

> Apparently common colds and the like are even more contagious than Covid-19, as the country where I live has had a mask mandate since September 2020 and I have been ill numerous times with regular sniffles and colds.

Anecdotes are not data, but if we're sharing them, your experience would be unusual in my neck of the woods.

> but it's a stretch to attribute it to masks and social control measures

It really isn't.

> but I don't think that policies have changed much over the past year - yet flu is back this winter

Compared to a year ago, social distancing and mask mandates are far weaker. December 2020, gyms were closed and I couldn't go to work and restaurants were at 25% capacity or outdoor/takeout only. Today gyms are open, I can work from my office, and restaurants can run at full capacity.