[amluto]

Restrictions would likely achieve essentially nothing right now. Reducing R from insane to merely very high might slightly flatten the curve, but not likely enough to make much difference. Restrictions on a level like China are a different story, but that’s not about to happen here.

Vaccines are entirely different story. They seem to have little effect on transmission (maybe enough to be useful after three doses but maybe not), but they seem to substantially reduce the number of people who end up hospitalized. So more vaccines would lower the curve, not flatten it.

(Take this with a grain of salt. Great data on vaccine efficacy in the US is a bit hard to come by, and I haven’t run the numbers.)