[romanhn]

As an (ex)EM, I don't think the likelihood of a first-level manager getting fired is all that different. What is different is the timeline - it takes longer to see whether the manager is underperforming (vs helping the team get out of a rough patch). There's also the consideration that a manager can at best influence their team's outcomes, while being fully accountable for them. This gets worse as you climb up the ladder, as the influencing gets more and more tenuous, while accountability only grows. The stress of this should not be underestimated by folks considering a move into management.