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If one of the goals of the vaccine passport is to partition the vaccinated from the unvaccinated (i.e i don't want to put my patrons at risk by allowing someone sick to enter my shop) then I suspect fraud is at the bottom of a long list of other more important issues that undermine said goal.

In order for vaccine passports to be effective, they need to be full-scale, uniform, and zero-tolerance. For ex. Australia does this high effect.

But in the U.S. every state, business, and household has a different set of rules and they've been making it up as they go. This has resulted in numerous non-fraud scenarios where the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups mingle, and supposedly exchange the virus. Ex. Grocery stores, schools, holiday dinners and parties

Our approach has been so federated that I can't imagine any meaningful improvements can be attributed to the passports. Inversely I can't imagine any real negative effects can be attributed to fraud.