[sumnuyungi]

Omicron is the dominant variant so you have to throw out all data prior to Nov 2021. When I use different age groups in the link you provided, the numbers imply a pretty small sample size. No deaths since Nov among 39 or younger, strange nonlinearity for 40-59.

Not the study from Reuters that I linked, but another with a specific definition of "vaccine effectiveness":

During the proxy omicron period, we found a vaccine effectiveness of 70% (95% confidence interval [CI], 62 to 76), a finding that was supported by the results of all sensitivity tests. This measure of vaccine effectiveness was significantly different from that during the comparator period, when the rate was 93% (95% CI, 90 to 94) against hospitalization for Covid-19 (Table 2).

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270#:~:text=D....

[xadhominemx]

The Swiss data seems pretty conclusive in favor of my point, as it includes the omicron wave. Also, see the recent nyc hospitalization data, which includes the entire omicron wave (now fading): https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data. Note, this raw data understates vaccine efficacy as a relatively high proportion of vaccinated individuals are vaccinate with rather than for COVID.

Not sure why the age bracket point is relevant unless you think the vaccines have different relative efficacy within different age brackets for omicron - that was not the case for prior variants.

[sumnuyungi]

> The Swiss data seems pretty conclusive in favor of my point, as it includes the omicron wave.

1. You can't use the entire range back to Jan 2021 to calculate current vaccine effectiveness and 2. if you use data from Nov 2021 (Omicron start), the Swiss data presents non-linearity that suggests small sample size/incomplete data.

> Also, see the recent nyc hospitalization data, which includes the entire omicron wave (now fading): https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data. Note, this raw data understates vaccine efficacy as a relatively high proportion of vaccinated individuals are vaccinate with rather than for COVID.

It understates vaccine efficacy or overemphasizes omicron severity. At this point, we have enough data from regions with varying vaccination rates to conclude that it's the latter.

> Not sure why the age bracket point is relevant unless you think the vaccines have different relative efficacy within different age brackets for omicron - that was not the case for prior variants.

I selected age brackets for time ranges during Omicron wave and the spikes suggest small sample sizes. Small sample sizes can't be used to draw any conclusions from re: vaccine effectiveness.

It really is not a disputed claim that 2 shots do not provide much protection over the baseline for Omicron. Hence this post submission with Pfizer launching an Omicron-specific shot...

[xadhominemx]

> It understates vaccine efficacy or overemphasizes omicron severity. At this point, we have enough data from regions with varying vaccination rates to conclude that it's the latter.

Huh? I don’t think you understand these tables