[notatoad]

from what i've seen, the traffic on HN seems to be low enough that everything gets a pretty fair shake. things sit in the new queue long enough that no matter when you submit it is going to get seen.

if your submissions aren't doing well, reconsider the content, not the timing ;)

[_delirium]

I think the opposite is generally true--- traffic on HN is high enough that things are very heavily dependent on the randomness of whether it gets 1-3 upvotes in the first 15 minutes, when the submission is still on the top half of the /newest page.

It'd be interesting if we had some empirical data, though.

[YuriNiyazov]

Except when two submissions with different URLs but with same content perform differently.

[notatoad]

a couple possibilities there:

1) if the first one performs well, people are probably ignoring the second for being a dupe.

2) a source website's reputation, page load times, amount and type of advertising, and site design all factor into the popularity of a submission.

3) luck is a factor. just because something does better this friday night, doesn't mean that every friday night is a good time to submit. the first couple upvotes are crucial, and that's only one or two people - easily within any error margin.

4) maybe i'm totally wrong. this isn't a scientific analysis, just my general perceptions, and i've only actively been reading HN for a couple months.

[jackpirate]

Probably more a result of different submitters than different URLs?

[YuriNiyazov]

1) I recognize that my one example is purely anecdotal, but this has happened to me, and I was submitter on both.

2) Either way, even if the performance of a submission is a function of the submitter rather than the URL, it contradicts what the GGP of this comment said, which is that it is a function of content.

[jackpirate]

re pt 1:

Do you think some URLs are more valuable (better domain/more descriptive/etc)? Or was it just luck?

[YuriNiyazov]

1) Better submission title (it was a pointer to a project I created, so I got to choose the title) 2) better submission time.