[luc4]

Exactly. Invading Ukraine would be political and economical suicide for Putin and Russia. Yet here we are getting bombarded in the media with the supposed threat of an imminent russian invasion. The chief of the german navy criticises this narrative and is forced to apologize and resign. I don't know but this all feels very dishonest.

[thomond]

Why do you think Russia is building up tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's border?

[hutzlibu]

As a threat and response because of military preparations in the Ukraine to strike again its eastern parts.

But aside that - for all the usual power reasons. Distract fromm inner problems, covid, economy, opposition, ...

[tpm]

How would that be political suicide? It's an dictatorship, there is no working opposition, no antiwar movement, anyone can be shut down very quickly.

It's only economical suicide if the West makes it so, which it most probably would not - and then there is the question if that would be enough. What if China is able to provide whatever the West would not. Moreover, Russia has close to no debt and high currency reseerves. It is true that it mostly sells oil, gas and minerals, but there are enough buyers for that.

In short, maybe their calclulus is very different to ours.

[luc4]

> How would that be political suicide?

I'm mostly thinking international politics and -projects like Nord Stream 2. But even internally, there are already anti-establishment movements in Russia. Unpopular military intervention might be grist to the mill for them. I don't think Putin wants to risk a situation like in Belarus a few months ago. It's easier to govern if the people don't openly disapprove of you, even in a dictatorship.

> It's only economical suicide if the West makes it so, which it most probably would not

I remember plans about excluding Russia from SWIFT. I don't know if that is still on the table.

[alkonaut]

> the supposed threat of an imminent russian invasion.

If Russia amasses several hundred thousand troops on Ukraines doorstep that’s not a supposed threat, it’s a threat since it’s perceived as a threat. Pointing a gun at someone is a threat. It’s not a supposed threat.

Also: The Russian invasion and occupation started 8 years ago!

[deepsun]

> Invading Ukraine would be political and economical suicide for Putin and Russia

They did invade: Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Was not a suicide for Putin, quite contrary, his political position within Russia has greatly improved.

[luc4]

Crimea was a referendum and Eastern Ukraine separatist rebels. Extent of russian involvement aside, there is a difference between that and an all-out invasion.

[sAbakumoff]

>> Crimea was a referendum

They occupied the territory first and then conducted the "referendum" to make it "legal". Don't buy this horsesht.

[caskstrength]

If they occupy Kyiv, there would also be all kinds of "referendums" and "local militias" with predictable results. It is not like anyone remotely pro-Ukrainian will stay and vote under watchful eye of friendly uniformed people (that don't wear any identifying insignia).

[alkonaut]

> Crimea was a referendum

Ok stop. This isn’t intellectually honest argumentation.

[twelve40]

Right, somehow, Kosovo is totally different.

[alkonaut]

What on earth has Kosovo got to do with this now then? Is it whataboutism? What is it?

There have not been any free/observed/internationally recognized referendums on Crimea. Most importantly, the referendum wasn't with blessing from Kyiv.

There was an annexaction which was partially done with military means and partially through a mock referendum. Both of those are blatant attacks on Ukrainian soverieignty.

[twelve40]

Kosovo has 100% to do with this, friend. In case you are genuinely curious: The "West" has decided that Kosovo suddenly must be independent, and they bombed the shit out of Serbia (6mil pop, tiny) on a pretext that somehow this just HAS to be a separate entity. They didn't even bother with, as you say, a "mock referendum"!! Now the same people come lecturing about borders and sovereignty, and referendums, sounds cheap as shit.