By the same token, BTC or other coin hitting zero is not just a question of chance. Suppose BTC had a large dip in value and a similar drop in mining. What are the odds people would focus on repeated double spend attacks for the lulz thus dropping the value to zero?
I am not saying that’s likely today, but rather that it’s easy to over estimate resilience in the case of black swan events.
No need to speculate, look at the price and hash rate charts in 2017. The more recent hashrate drop was even bigger. Still no successful attacks.
There's a disincentive for people with mining power to attack the network (assuming they even have enough). It makes their hardware worth less so I can't imagine anyone doing it for kicks.
Agree though that something similar to what you're saying is what Bitcoin hitting $0 would look like. Certainly not impossible but I think it's extremely difficult attack. Even more so now than in 2017.
Yea, I think that’s more a risk of dropping the last 1% in value rather than a significant risk to current prices.
The real issue for current owners is Crypto seems to have lost it’s grip on the popular imagination. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin What happens from here is likely a question of utility rather than speculation.
I am not saying that’s likely today, but rather that it’s easy to over estimate resilience in the case of black swan events.