[remarkEon]

>when their parents lungs turn to swiss cheese

I'm going to be charitable and assume you don't think this actually happens, and are simply using this image for rhetorical effect. But, in the interest of trying to be helpful in yet-another-stupid-covid-thread, here's the CDC's take[1]:

>Among 1,228,664 persons who completed primary vaccination during December 2020–October 2021, severe COVID-19–associated outcomes (0.015%) or death (0.0033%) were rare. Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four. [Emphasis mine]

Now, I'm not saying it's time to stop worrying about this completely. Who knows, maybe a new "worse" variant comes up. But the existing data does not in any way make me worried about getting this, because I'm relatively young and healthy. Make your own judgements on personal risk, but if I were in charge I'd go completely back to normal tomorrow. Those who are still concerned are free to quarantine of their own free will, but I do not think it's fair to force the youngest to put their lives on pause because some people are still terrified of this.

[1]https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7101a4.htm?s_cid=mm...

[msbarnett]

> All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four.

It’s worth discussing what these risk factors are, since they’re a lot more common and broader than people imagine.

I myself have at least 4 CDC identified factors: I’m lactose intolerant, have an anxiety disorder, seasonal allergies and “caffeine dependency”.

While the overall number of adverse advents in my age range aren’t terribly concerning, the “at least 4 risk factors” discourse strikes me as terribly misleading because many of these “risk factors” that are used to handwave away deaths are common and utterly benign. How many other people in this industry have acne, are on the autism spectrum, suffer from depression, experience lower back pain?

Practically everyone I’ve ever worked with is probably pushing 4 factors.

[spxtr]

I'm probably misreading this, but I see "In this study, age ≥65 years, immunosuppression, diabetes, and chronic kidney, cardiac, pulmonary, neurologic, and liver disease were associated with higher odds for severe COVID-19 outcomes;" listed as the eight risk factors. Where are you seeing the ones you listed?

[msbarnett]

It comes from their full comorbidity tracking dataset: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/covid19-comorbid...

Some of these aren't common comorbidities, but they nonetheless factor in to the "died with N comorbidities" averages

[thoughtstheseus]

Good news! The CDC does not identify every comorbidity as a risk factor. I’m glad they provide the data so you can make a more nuanced decision on your own.

[imgabe]

> I myself have at least 4 CDC identified factors: I’m lactose intolerant, have an anxiety disorder, seasonal allergies and “caffeine dependency”.

These are just widespread things in the population. If 80% of the population has a caffeine dependency, then it's not surprising that 80% of people who die of Covid have a caffeine dependency. That doesn't mean they're related.

[terminatornet]

Thanks for not taking the bait on my comment. My only issue with the argument you provided is that the CDC is pointing to comorbidities as a reason why we shouldn't worry about covid anymore. "Hey, I'm young and healthy, why should I worry about it?" feels like the wrong attitude we should be taking as a society.

I don't want anyone, comorbidities or otherwise to have to suffer the effects of covid and I think the fact that many hospitals and healthcare workers (at least in the US), seemed to be at their breaking point means now does not feel like the time to try and ignore covid

[noah_buddy]

> I don't want anyone, comorbidities or otherwise to have to suffer the effects of covid

This is a childish worldview, not because empathy is wrong or harm minimization is wrong but because you're subjectively presuming that COVID harm is more valid a goal to minimize than: depression and suicide, deaths and bad health due to inactivity, etc, etc. Further, we have no idea of the knock-on effects, perhaps we'll realize in ten years that we've created a demographic time bomb because everyone under the age of 20 right now will be incredibly distrustful of society and government, and choose to not actively contribute. My point is, someone is being harmed by the choices we make, even if COVID deaths go down (but, then again, with all our actions in the US, we've seemingly not avoided that much COVID infection and death, worst of both worlds).

>and I think the fact that many hospitals and healthcare workers (at least in the US), seemed to be at their breaking point means now does not feel like the time to try and ignore covid

Perhaps, the issue is that we've created an industry where the credentialing is monopolized by special interest groups when we also need that industry to be adequately staffed to absorb shocks like pandemics. If we wanted to alleviate overburdened doctors, we could've eliminated the functional cap on the number of students studying each year to be doctors back in 2020. But, your average doctor would actually oppose that choice, because their incentives are not aligned with society's.

[tracker1]

I would say that a solution to that would be more volunteerism. Perhaps even drawing some inspiration from the 2nd amendment. "A well organized militia being necessary..." ... Actually, you know go a step beyond registration and have more coordinated training, including field medics.

If 1 in 10 people have a minimal level of field medic training, that would cover a LOT of slack in terms of something like a national or global pandemic. It doesn't have to be regular doctors, or even RNs that take up the slack. The bulk of the work is cleaning, monitoring and keeping things relatively calm and structured. Triage is meant to sort based on urgency of need... You don't need the most trained people to give attention, and keep things relatively calm.

Of course, the reasonableness of training 1:10th of the population in this way for an event that may occur once a century and is largely unavoidable is also up for debate.

[remarkEon]

>deaths and bad health due to inactivity

This is the next big story about the deleterious effect of lock-downs and masking and social distancing etc, after basically ruining a generation of education. Many are in the worst shape of their lives right now because they haven't been able to do their usual work-out routine at the gym. The knock-on effects of this won't be felt for a while, but they will be real. Ironically this makes otherwise healthy <65 year old people more at-risk for bad covid outcomes (albeit it's still exceedingly low risk, especially if vax'd).

[orwin]

I'm sorry I'm a bit insensitive, this isn't my experience at all.

Me and all my friends are in better shape (most of them left big city to go to a more rural area), all of them now cook (i might have influenced this). my brother and sister are too, two of my cousins went from 35+ BMI to 30 BMI, the rest are still in shape. It might be because of the environment, or the country. It is easier for me to be outside, we have outdoor gyms 8n most cities, sometime with gym trails. My point is the experience is very anecdotal, and can be great for some and a disaster for others.

I've heard that autistics people in the US suffer from wearing masks. My psychologist (specialized in functional autism) told me that most of her patients feel the same way I do, or better, even those deeper on the spectrum.

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, but you are generalizing too much, and maybe too US-centric.

[tracker1]

Do you have the same reaction to other common virus/cold vectors?

Hospitals and healthcare workers are partly overworked at this point because there is under staffing, a huge number quit or were otherwise laid off and decided no to come back. It's not a lack of space. The other side are the number of people going to the hospital in a panic because they have a cough and think they're going to die out of panic.

The level of FUD spread over COVID is palpable and exceeds the danger, and largely has since the beginning. EVERYONE is going to get COVID at some point. That is the scientific consensus. Trying to reach COVID zero or force everyone to lock down in perpetuity is anti-science. This is largely why GB, one of the more oppressed nations in terms of response has now completely rolled back govt restrictions/mandates.

Omicron (latest variant) is so virulent that it's massively spread, but the symptoms are less than a typical flu year. I went through it a few weeks ago, so did my fiance. She's fully vaxxed and got it worse than I did. I'm not vaxed for medical reasons. I've had worse cases of the flu. I realize I'm an N of 1, but there are a LOT of people with similar results. These include a lot of vaccinated elderly.

As to the breaking point... the 2018 flu season had many facilities overwhelmed... it's actually really typical. Why, because hospitals don't have a ton of excess staff sitting around doing nothing all day. They are staffed to 50-65% of expected typical capacity, because emergencies are typically regional, and some will travel to help. When the problem is everywhere, there's no slack. There's literally not much that can be done about that.

If you want to hermetically seal off your home, you are welcome to do so... but to force everyone else to do so because you have unrealistic expectations on the risks of walking outside your front door is not alright.

[terminatornet]

> Do you have the same reaction to other common virus/cold vectors?

The ones that affect 30% less of the US population in an 8 week span typically? No

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1483996724427251714

[escapedmoose]

> The other side are the number of people going to the hospital in a panic because they have a cough and think they're going to die out of panic.

Extremely high test positivity rates show that this isn't the case.

And yes, flu outbreaks can and do periodically overwhelm health systems, but not to this extent: where entire healthcare systems (not just hospitals) are cancelling lucrative elective procedures, broadly restricting/removing visitation, employing federal disaster relief, etc.

That's at least the case in my state; I can't speak for yours of course. AFAIK we also don't know much about the prevalence of "long COVID" from Omicron. Anecdotally, of the dozen or so people (mid-30s, all but 1 vaccinated) I personally know who got COVID over the holidays (so presumably Omicron), 2 were hospitalized and 5 were completely floored by COVID for at least a month. My vaccinated sister still doesn't have her sense of taste/smell back two months later. I think in a month or so we vaccinated folks can probably start acting normal again, like we did last summer. But at the moment it doesn't seem like the best time to take the gamble.

[oarsinsync]

> where entire healthcare systems (not just hospitals) are cancelling lucrative elective procedures

It’s worth noting that in the context of the UK hospital system, elective surgeries are not elective in the sense that the person has made a choice to have surgery, but rather it’s simply the opposite of emergency surgery. It’s usually vital life saving surgery, but the scheduling of the surgery is elective.

For example, you could have heart attacks, find out you have blocked arteries and be told you need to have a triple bypass. If the need is not immediate right this very second or you’re going to die, that’s elective surgery.

It is not things like a boob job.

[tracker1]

A positive test for COVID is not equivalent to a need to be in the ER. MOST people with COVID don't need to go to the hospital at all.

As to your assessment, if you choose to stay inside that is fine... that doesn't mean that EVERYONE should be forced to do so.

I just got over COVID, I'm un-vaccinated because of high medical risks to vaccines, everyone else in my household is vaccinated. We went through COVID the past few weeks... I got through it in just over a week, my fiance, fully vaccinated and boosted had worse symptoms than I did that started and lasted longer. My 19yo daughter didn't even have any symptoms.

[zimpenfish]

> This is largely why GB, one of the more oppressed nations in terms of response has now completely rolled back govt restrictions/mandates.

Well, that's more to do with our current PM flailing about under a whole swathe of self-inflicted wounds trying to a) gin up support from the right wing criticising the lockdowns/vaccines, and b) distract from said wounds by creating a lot of noise about this kind of policy. It is basically nothing to do with scientific consensus or sensible policy or anything like that.

[tracker1]

Scientific consensus was I've that most doctors recommend Camel cigarettes then any other brand... It's less than perfect.

Given the choice, I'm going to lean towards personal liberty.

[ModernMech]

> Those who are still concerned are free to quarantine of their own free will, but I do not think it's fair to force the youngest to put their lives on pause because some people are still terrified of this.

This is the whole reason we can't got back to normal tomorrow, even if you could make it so by being "in charge". When I look around at the faculty in my school district, I see a whole lot of comorbidities, and those are just the visible ones. And yes, some of the faculty have died from Covid, one of them was 37, the other 43. How do you get kids in school and protect teachers at the same time.

These teachers already have to deal with the looming threat of school shootings. But now they also have to deal with Covid, and on top of that they went from being called "essential workers" to being called criminals (just look at the comment section in TFA). This is leading to a teacher shortage, where young people no longer want to enter the profession, and older people are retiring. So if you really, truly want to open schools for the sake of children, figure out a way to do so that makes teachers feel safe to teach, or start teaching yourself.

[remarkEon]

>This is the whole reason we can't got back to normal tomorrow

Nah.

If you want to disengage from society based on your personal risk preferences, you should be free to do so. At this point, two years after this started, I should be free to reengage in my normal activities (the gym, catching the game with the guys on the weekend, taking my wife to a show).

>When I look around at the faculty in my school district, I see a whole lot of comorbidities, and those are just the visible ones.

And these policies are going to make those comorbidities worse, not better. Everyone is less healthy today than they were 2 years ago when this started because we're sitting in front of a screen all day. This includes children. Headline from 2034: Obesity and Type 1 diabetes are at an all-time high. Were school lockdowns during the 2020-2024 pandemic the cause?

>This is leading to a teacher shortage

Where? In places that are locked down? These policies are causing that, and it's actually exacerbating education gaps for underrepresented minorities or socioeconomically disadvantaged folks who can't afford a private school that doesn't do this stuff.

>So if you really, truly want to open schools for the sake of children, figure out a way to do so that makes teachers feel safe to teach, or start teaching yourself.

My wife and I will likely be homeschooling, for a number of reasons, but one of them is that we'd like our children to not be held hostage to a cultural moment that wants to turn covid policies into the next 9/11. Permanent societal change for little if any tangible benefit.

[ModernMech]

> If you want to disengage from society based on your personal risk preferences, you should be free to do so. At this point, two years after this started, I should be free to reengage in my normal activities

Yes, 100% agreed.

> Where? In places that are locked down?

Let's take a look at Georgia, for instance. I don't think they instituted particularly heavy lockdowns. Here we have a state where 60 teachers/staff have died in Georgia over a roughly 3 month period [0]. Some notable statistics:

- They had 14 bus drivers who died. I know people like to pretend that Covid is safer than driving, but literally 14 bus drivers have never died over a 3 month period due to traffic accidents. That just does not happen. Anyway, what do you think it takes to replace those 14 bus drivers, and how are students getting to school while the vacancies persist? In the Griffin-Spalding School District, 3 bus drivers died within a week. That's not normal.

- 42 faculty and staff died, the average age of deceased faculty was 46, the average age of staff was 50. That's not normal.

What's the effect of this? This article sums up my thoughts pretty well [1]. Some excerpts:

  [I]n my district there are several schools scrambling to fill vacant teacher positions with qualified teachers

  A big group of baby boomer teachers is retiring, some on time, some early. Fewer people are going into education because it is seen as less of a profession and more of “calling,” with little pay. There is a movement called “The Great Resignation” that is speaking directly to the exploited feeling many teachers have.

The author goes on to list a number of suggestions that she believes would help the situation, but we all know approximately none of those will happen. Hence the teacher exodus. Hence the substitute teacher shortage [2]. Hence the bus driver shortage [3]. Hence school closures [4], which make parents angry. Parents lash out at teachers demanding that schools open, which further just drives teachers to want to quit. Because they're not closed by choice -- they're closed because teachers and staff are dying, quitting, and finding other opportunities, and the sales pitch to fill those vacant roles is really quite terrible.

Anyway, my point is this: no matter how much anyone wants to get back to normal, getting there isn't a matter of someone "in charge" ordering things to just open up. This sounds like an Underpants Gnome strategy:

1. Open schools

2. ...

3. Kids are educated and mentally whole

There's a whole lot of detail missing in step 2 there, and I think people who want things to be fully open and back to normal really need to grapple with the complexity of what step 2 is eliding.

> My wife and I will likely be homeschooling, for a number of reasons

Good on you, I wish you the best of luck!

[0] https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/least-50-georgia-te...

[1] https://www.ajc.com/education/get-schooled-blog/teacher-my-p...

[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-shortage-georgia-schoo...

[3] https://thegeorgiavirtue.com/georgia-news/bus-driver-shortag...

[4] https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/entire-south-ga-school-dis...

[MattRix]

Ok now show the data of what percentage of people have long term side effects from having covid.

[ryathal]

Similar to chronic Lyme and not really relevant.