[monocasa]

> a la the current surge in homicides

How do police prevent homicides? Are people really out there thinking "the police department is 10% smaller than last year (but has a larger budget), I bet I could off my neighbor and get away with it"?

[throwaway894345]

My understanding is that police have reduced their preventative policing activities either by policy or soft pressure. Criminals aren’t idiots—they can tell when police pressure goes up or down.

[monocasa]

But like, what kind of preventative policing reduces homicides? Who's that person that's out murdering because they saw 10% less cop cars drive by?

A better explanation is that underlying social safety nets have been ripped out from under people for the past couple of years putting way more people in rough, quasi legal situations to get by that make them trend towards extralegal forms of dispute resolution like personal application of violence. Additionally suicides count as a homicide (it's technically a person killing a person), which has made the numbers go up over the past couple years.

[throwaway894345]

> But like, what kind of preventative policing reduces homicides?

Misdemeanor arrests, searches, and foot patrols, etc. See my various other comments for more details and links.

> A better explanation is that underlying social safety nets have been ripped out from under people for the past couple of years

These effects predate the pandemic and correlate with the BLM protests in time and space (crime surges immediately after and in the vicinity of BLM protests). That said, I don’t doubt the pandemic contributed since 2020.

[monocasa]

> Misdemeanor arrests, searches, and foot patrols, etc. See my various other comments for more details and links.

That doesn't track though. _Why_ would misdemeanor arrests result in less murders. I don't agree with Charles Fain Lehman's analysis in your post, and believe that while he thinks that because violent crime arrests when misdemeanors dropped that somehow proves that police aren't to blame I see the opposite in that data. As I argued above, that says to me that a drop in public acceptance of the role of police and the justice system leads to self directed dispute resolution, which more often turns violent. His gotcha that's supposed to be a nail in the coffin of this argument appears to me to actually be a point in favor of it.

> These effects predate the pandemic and correlate with the BLM protests in time and space (crime surges immediately after and in the vicinity of BLM protests). That said, I don’t doubt the pandemic contributed since 2020.

The idea that cities reaching a boiling point in distrust of the justice system, followed by no meaningful reform continue down the road of self directed and often violent dispute resolution is consistent with the model I've presented.

[throwaway894345]

> Why_ would misdemeanor arrests result in less murders.

That's an unanswered question (crime is complicated), but there are probably many factors, not least of all that people get arrested for misdemeanors and then they're found with felony amounts of drugs or weapons and thus removed from the street.

> I don't agree with Charles Fain Lehman's analysis in your post

It's not his analysis, he's reporting on the findings of studies.

> while he thinks that because violent crime arrests when misdemeanors dropped that somehow proves that police aren't to blame I see the opposite in that data.

He doesn't profess that belief in the article.

> As I argued above, that says to me that a drop in public acceptance of the role of police and the justice system leads to self directed dispute resolution, which more often turns violent.

The article posits that as a factor as well (specifically that loss of trust in policing leads to less cooperation from the community).

> The idea that cities reaching a boiling point in distrust of the justice system, followed by no meaningful reform continue down the road of self directed and often violent dispute resolution is consistent with the model I've presented.

"Your" model also requires us to believe that the evidence of decreased proactive policing is merely a coincidence, which is hard for me to stomach. I don't doubt that the loss of trust contributed, but I only think this is the "fault" of policing as an institution to the extent that the activist and media narrative is accurate (which is to say, "not very").

[monocasa]

> That's an unanswered question (crime is complicated), but there are probably many factors, not least of all that people get arrested for misdemeanors and then they're found with felony amounts of drugs or weapons and thus removed from the street.

Being in jail doesn't stop homicides. In fact they have more homicides than the general population.

> It's not his analysis, he's reporting on the findings of studies.

It's both. If you read the studies, while in the abstract they purport to establish a causal link, they don't back that up in their methodology. Lehman combines this into a greater analysis.

> He doesn't profess that belief in the article.

He professes a causal link between police _protests_ and increased homicides, finishing his article with "But it does give support to those who propose a relationship between 2020’s wave of anti-police protests and the ensuing homicide wave still sweeping the country—and to those who believe that continued hostility to the police will lead to more bloodshed."

> The article posits that as a factor as well (specifically that loss of trust in policing leads to less cooperation from the community).

While calling out protests specifically as being causal wrt to homicide rate.

> "Your" model also requires us to believe that the evidence of decreased proactive policing is merely a coincidence, which is hard for me to stomach. I don't doubt that the loss of trust contributed, but I only think this is the "fault" of policing as an institution to the extent that the activist and media narrative is accurate (which is to say, "not very").

No, police not doing the basics of their job while still overall increasing their budgets, and particularly arbitrarily and capriciously enforcing the law would be a major factor in loss of confidence in the justice system. I'm not saying that it's a coincidence; I'm saying that it's part of the model. If you can't rely on police to respond reported crime, then you start handling disputes person to person. Meanwhile with budgets continuing to increase _and_ police not doing their jobs, any semblance of social safety nets disappear. That's the point of "defund the police", noticing that they refuse to do the basics of their job, and in fact the goal of using them as a catchall for all sorts of social services failed, so put that portion of the budget back into more productive uses.

[vkou]

> How do police prevent homicides?

They don't, they clean up after the fact, and convict someone for ~50% of them. Unless it's one of their own that's responsible, then the entire country needs to riot for a week, before anyone even thinks of pressing charges.