[mockingbirdy]

The performances of the models are almost unbelievable. I only saw something similar with alphahub.us in the past (but higher max. drawdowns) - what do you think of them?

I'm interested in running the Gold Plan, are there any resources on how to set up a fully automatic trading system with it? I'd love to connect.

[pyrrhotech]

Alphahub looks interesting, but their algorithms are quite different from mine. Theirs are picking individual stocks and sending out a signal at a regular frequency, every day, telling you what they think will be the best performing for that day.

By contrast, our models only send out signals on average of once per 2-4 weeks depending on the model. Our signals are always macro signals--they have an opinion only on where they see the overall market (S&P 500) heading next. The signals are irregular. During extremely calm times like in 2013 or 2017, there can be months without a signal. On the other hand, during highly volatile times like the COVID crash in 2020, there can be multiple signals per day, but there will never be more than 1 per hour.

Naturally, their drawdowns will be worse because individual stocks are inherently more risky than the index. As far as which will be the best absolute performer over the long term? I guess we'll have to wait and see :)

One last note about ours that could make a difference depending on your account type and country of residence. Since our models are macro models, if you live in the USA and implement them exactly by trading the S&P 500 Futures, you'll save money in taxes as all gains are taxed at 60% long term and 40% short term regardless of holding period. Alphahub gains will be taxed always at 100% short term rates unless held for more than a year which is unlikely with their systems.

I'm glad to hear you are interested in setting up your own automatic trading system! I'm in the process of writing some docs on exactly how it works, but in essence, we'll give you an access token for the API and then you can call it from your bot locally or in the cloud to get the live signals for all the models you have access to.

[mockingbirdy]

You talk in plural form, but I can only find information about you on the page. With this kind of alpha, I'd expect a team of quant traders and physicists working on it (I actually talked with the creator of alphahub.us, he's a physicist). Are you intending to work full-time on it and what are the other plans (I saw you started a job at a new company)? Not trying to be skeptical, but this could be something life-changing if it works - already pretty hyped tbh.

The alphahub.us strategy has execution problems because some of the smaller companies in the NASDAQ have low trading volume, so it doesn't scale as easily as a macro strat. I've talked with people who run it and it runs into scalability issues even with limited amounts of capital. Still trying to find the catch with your offer because it looks amazing.

[pyrrhotech]

I do have the habit of talking in plural form. The site was built by my wife and I together, but I built 100% of the models myself. I did work on this full time for over 2 years before recently starting a new job. Now, I've got the models to a place where it becomes very difficult to improve them. I used to be able to make huge progress in a week, now I can spend 100 hours trying different theories and may not end up with any progress. That can be frustrating, so I decided, the models are fantastic right now, the execution framework is very stable, I'm happy with how they are performing, I'm going to let them run.

As mentioned, I'm not rich (1.4M in bot, ~2M total net worth), a SWE job paying 400-600k is quite meaningful to me even with 40-60% returns on my portfolio for the time being, just as potential profits from this website (also perhaps in that range within a year or two?) are also meaningful. If the website fails to generate significant revenue, I may shut it down. Also, I enjoy working on satisfying things, and now that the models are mature and the website is mostly finished except minor details, I'm happy to have a team and a project for now :)

That's also a good call out on the scaling problems--another reason our models trade the SPX futures, literally the most liquid financial instrument in the world. By my slippage calculations, the models don't need significant scaling updates until at least 1B+ is being traded.