[csee]

> Agreed that it provides no data on future filters ahead of us

This was my instinct, too, after reading both of your posts, but on reflection I think that it's unlikely to be no information.

If we instead found 199 examples of extinct complex life (say, fossilized rodent-like creatures), instead of extinct simple life, we all probably agree that this would increase the odds of the filter being in front of us.

Now, imagine gradually changing the example from extinct complex life (rodent-type creatures) and going down to extinct simple life. At what point in this thought experiment does it become "no data"?

[s1artibartfast]

I guess I agree that discovering extinct life is information about probabilistic filters in earths future. I But, it does have to be weighed against the newly observed data supporting filters humans have already past.

To take your example, as we keep finding rodent fossils, we become more confident that a filter exists between rat and rocket-men. As we go from 0 planets with rodent fossils to 1 trillion planets, the probability that this is the filter keeps going up.

That is to say, we are not only decreasing the chance of pre-rat filters, but simultaneously increasing the chance that the filter is in the rat stage.