Omicron isn't worth fussing over though. It's equivalent to a common cold. The South Africans have been saying that from the start and can't understand why nobody listens to them.
The South Africans have not been saying that at all.
They have said it's somewhat milder and results in lower rates of hospitalisation, but that it's still a serious disease and that the increased infectiousness can result in the same number of people hospitalised (or more) because it cancels out.
In fact, South Africa's Omicron-driven wave peaked at just under 10 000 hospitalised, comparable to around 15 000 hospitalised for the Delta-driven third wave. [0] And this was in a population with extremely high seroprevalence and a 400/100k death rate with nearly 300 000 dead.
"The South African doctor who first spotted the new Covid variant Omicron, Dr. Angelique Coetzee says the United Kingdom is “panicking unnecessarily”. She describes the symptoms of the highly mutated variant which has sparked global panic over fears that it is more contagious than other strains as “extremely mild”."
Hospitalized with Omicron is effectively meaningless. Over half the people in the UK classed as hospitalized with Omicron definitely caught it in the hospital itself, and most were asymptomatic. The word doesn't mean what it normally means.
You are selectively cherry-picking data here. Dr Coetzee is one doctor with a relatively small number of patients, and she was always clear in stating that her observations were for her patients only. Nor has she or any other set of prominent South African doctors or scientists claimed that Omicron is no worse than the common cold.
Dr Coetzee was also clear to state that her patient base was all relatively young in a country where many of the elderly have been vaccinated and there are high rates of seroprevalence amongst the youth. A level of seroprevalence that was bought at the cost of one of the world's highest death tolls from the virus.
The broad studies that have been done suggest that Omicron may have been about 70% less likely to cause severe disease than Delta in South Africa. As for "hospitalized with Omicron is effectively meaningless", they found that the risks of death once hospitalised were the same for Omicron and Delta. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.21.21268116v...
They also caution that it's preliminary research without the ability yet to rule out other contributing factors. For instance, when Omicron hit South Africa it was in between waves and at the tail end of a massive and devastating Delta-wave, which created substantial seroprevalence in urban areas. This is unlike the case in the US and Europe, where a Delta and Omicron wave have coincided. South Africa's Omicron wave also peaked and subsided extremely quickly, faster than is being seen in Europe and the US.
Many of the elderly in the most affected areas had also been vaccinated, and they further caution that they can't predict Omicron's behaviour in a population with relatively low vaccination and low seroprevalence levels.
Again, even if Omicron is substantially 'milder' than Delta, with the right conditions it doesn't matter because the increased infectiousness is enough to overwhelm hospitals anywhere. As we're seeing in the UK, parts of Europe, and all over the US.
"Nor has she or any other set of prominent South African doctors or scientists claimed that Omicron is no worse than the common cold."
No? She said "They really don't get that sick ... they're happy ... they're all happy". The symptoms and severity match that of a mild cold or more or less any low severity seasonal bug: "muscle aches, fatigue, a scratchy throat and night sweats".
This particular doctor has been interviewed on TV news to describe Omicron and has seen quite a few patients who had it. What exactly is your definition of "prominent"?
"they found that the risks of death once hospitalised were the same for Omicron and Delta"
That's what you'd expect, right? It means that of the people who are turning up with one of the two at the front door (vs getting it in hospital), they are being admitted based on clinical need not a random coin toss. I don't quite see why you think this says anything about severity amongst the general population.
"They also caution that it's preliminary research without the ability yet to rule out other contributing factors ... they further caution that they can't predict Omicron's behaviour in a population with relatively low vaccination and low seroprevalence levels."
See, this attitude is why so many people have learned to ignore researcher's claims about infectious diseases. In March 2020 "preliminary data" was used to justify incredibly extreme measures. Now it's being used to justify keeping them. The pseudo-scientists that dominate public health have no consistent principles and nothing they say can be taken at face value.
As for the latter part, of course they can predict it. South Africa is only ~25% vaccinated which compared to western countries is indeed relatively low. As for seroprevalence, what do you think vaccines are meant to create? The only scenario in which information from actual doctors in South Africa is misleading is if vaccines make Omicron drastically worse. Is that what you're arguing?
This is ridiculous, you're not discussing this in good faith.
Without any actual expertise in this area you reject out of hand the results of an actual scientific study looking at hospital admissions across the entire country and instead prioritise that of a single GP, just because it aligns closer to what you want to be true. You're also selectively quoting her words, as she never said that the severity matched that of a 'mild cold', as well as leaving out that she only saw a relatively small number of patients, who were young, and none that were hospitalised.
Nor are the results in one place automatically transferable to another, given differences in population density, recency of infections & vaccinations, movement, and other factors. We're already seeing that difference, where the US, UK, and EU are seeing much higher hospitalisation rates, older patients, and a longer wave duration with Omicron than South Africa did. So even if it is milder than Delta, hospitals are still being overwhelmed.
Everyone wants a way out of this as soon as possible. But wishful thinking isn't a useful strategy against a virus.
As I said above already, hospitalization stats for Omicron don't mean anything. In the UK more than half of all "hospitalized" Omicron cases caught it in hospital and of those, most are asymptomatic.
Yes, people can catch infectious bugs like colds and flu-like illnesses in hospital. It's a building full of sick people, it happens. That doesn't mean there's a crisis in the population.
Risk management is about accessing risk and taking precautions. It's can very well be a private matter.
Fussing, openly squirming, talking down to people out of anxiety, etc. is lacking dignity.