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by skybrian 1617 days ago
Bitcoin can be considered zero sum since the only way to get money out is to trade with someone putting money in, and there is no other income stream. There are no plans to change this.

The real difference with traditional gambling is that there is no plan to ever end the game. As long as it continues, the players can believe they will come out ahead, even though if you stopped the game at any time, losses by people who didn't exit would match gains by people who did.

"The game ends now" values current holdings of Bitcoin at zero since there is nothing in the pot, but it's unclear if that will ever happen, and no sign that it will soon.

2 comments

How is any tradable instrument any different. If you stopped the game most stocks would be worth 0 too as few pay any real dividend.
Not true, if own a certain percentage of the stock of a company you can auction of its assets and keep the money.
Here are a few ways they're different:

- For most bonds, the game ends at maturity.

- The money used for stock buybacks doesn't come from other shareholders, so that's not zero sum.

- Many companies have substantial assets, so they do have liquidation value.

However, it's true that most stocks trade far above liquidation value, under the assumption that the game will continue.

If you remove the exchange cut and transfer fees the Bitcoin also enters in negative return territory. Unless you are the one running these services.