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by marcosdumay 1616 days ago
> But, what are the chances of this being coincidental?

Enormous. The odds are heavily on the side of this being a coincidence.

What are the odds of, if this was a leak, the leak coming from that single research line? It's basically 1 divided by the number of experiments running on the lab. And that's assuming it was a leak, if you estimate the odds of it being a leak, you will at a minimum halve that number.
2 comments
afpx 1616 days ago
Why would there be a ban on this type of research, in the US, since 2014?

https://osp.od.nih.gov/biotechnology/gain-of-function-resear...

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dalmo3 1615 days ago
> 1 divided by the number of experiments running on the lab

That would only make sense if you knew there was a leak but didn't know which virus was leaked.

Since we already have the knowledge of what virus (supposedly) leaked, the odds are (1/number of labs experimenting with that virus).

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marcosdumay 1615 days ago
Yes, but isn't that lab the place to go for researching coronavirus? Dividing the odds through all experiments may underestimate it, but it's not very far.
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