[logifail]

> The timeline doesn't look good for him [..]

There are scientists who state we're at the point where "we need to target the vulnerable" (rather than giving boosters to all over-12s) and that "there [is] no point in trying to stop all infections, and that at some point, society has to open up".

Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, chairman of the [UK's] Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is one of them.

[lern_too_spel]

The point when society has to open up is when there is enough community immunity that removing mitigations doesn't cause healthcare shortages due to staff infections or resource constraints. That's after Paxlovid is readily available or vaccine mandates have driven up vaccination rates, not today.

[logifail]

> The point when society has to open up is when there is enough community immunity that removing mitigations doesn't cause healthcare shortages due to staff infections or resource constraints [..]

Currently many staff shortages are being made much worse by public health policy, not Covid19 itself, in that otherwise healthy staff being forced to stay away from work to comply with quarantine requirements.

These requirements are now being relaxed[0], which is a good thing, but at some point the requirements need to go back to how the world worked before Covid which is approximately "if you're sick, please stay at home; if you're healthy, please come to work".

[0] CDC Updates and Shortens Recommended Isolation and Quarantine Period for General Population https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quar...

[tata71]

What region do you think is going to achieve another +10% on their current "fully" vaccinated ratio?

[lern_too_spel]

Most of the country. There are only a few places where the vaccination rate is already high enough that a mandate couldn't increase it at least 10%.

The scare quotes around "fully" are unnecessary. Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations. (Sure, if you want them to reduce your own risk, that's fine because they have been approved. If you want them to reduce disruptions in your workplace, that is also fine. Just don't expect to materially impact health system availability.) Vaccinating the unvaccinated has a much larger effect. Alternatively, Omicron seems like it will reach them before mandates take effect or Paxlovid supply is ready, with worse outcomes on the health system.

[logifail]

> Two doses is enough to drive down hospitalization risk to flu levels. Boosters aren't necessary from a public health perspective because boosting the already vaccinated has a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations.

If you look at the data, it appears that vaccinating the young and healthy has "a miniscule effect on total hospitalizations", too.

[lern_too_spel]

There are very few young and healthy in the parts of the country where vaccination rates are low. The last Covid hospitalization surge in the US was mostly working age adults, whom the mandates would apply to.

[logifail]

> There are very few young and healthy in the parts of the country where vaccination rates are low

I'm not quite sure what to make of that claim. There are an awful lot of unvaccinated young people in the USA.

"13.2 million of US children and adolescents ages 12- 17 are fully vaccinated. [this] represent[s] 53% of 12-17 year-olds"[0] (as of 5 Jan 2022)

also

"Child vaccination rates vary widely across states. In 10 states, at least three-quarters of children (age 12-17) have received at least 1 dose, and in 16 states, fewer than 50% have received 1 dose."

[0] https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19...

[logifail]

It appears that some regions may actually be at risk of driving ratios downwards as they shorten the validity of vaccination certificates for those already "fully vaccinated" but who haven't had additional shots since then.