|
|
|
|
|
by FabHK
1627 days ago
|
|
Hmm, a bit more involved maybe, but not that much. But your calculation sure seems short. With S = sleeper, and L = letter L, and remembering "total probability": P(L) = P(L|S)P(S) + P(L|-S)P(-S),
(where -S is not S), we have by Bayes P(S|L)
= P(L|S) P(S) / P(L)
= P(L|S) P(S) / (P(L|S)P(S) + P(L|-S)P(-S))
= 1/6 * 1/5 / (1/6*1/5 + 1/4*4/5)
= 1/30 / (1/30 + 6/30)
= 1/7
|
|