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by boxmonster 1629 days ago
Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days

https://coinmarketcap.com/

6 comments

> Actually Bitcoin is down 13.52% in the last 7 days

If a stock market index (e.g., S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc) was doing the same there would be many more headlines and people freaking out.

Some people claim that Bitcoin is "money", or at least a store of value, but I'm not sure I'd want to have any net worth stored in something that is as volatile at Bitcoin has been over the past year:

* https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

The S&P 500 market cap is over $40 trillion. The bitcoin market cap is under $2 trillion. I just looked up this data super quick with Google so corrections are welcome. And yep, I'm editing my comment because apparently that data is for all of crypto - bitcoin is $815 billion according to ycharts.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_market_cap

That's still an absurd amount of money, but there is more than an order of magnitude difference just in money, not to mention how almost no parts of the modern economy interact with cryptocurrencies in any way whatsoever.

I don’t understand what you’re trying to say. That is, why do market caps matter here?
I don't necessarily agree with it, but market cap is essentially the standard metric for how we measure value in our economy. If Apple goes down 10% people care because they're worth trillions and lots of people lose money. If a mid-size company goes down 10% a lot fewer people care.
I understand what market cap is but I don’t understand why it is relevant to your point. Apple is the same order of magnitude as bitcoin but you claim the media would care about a 10% move in the former but not the latter.

Firstly it doesn’t make sense to me because bitcoin isn’t a company, nor is it made of them so this doesn’t feel like a like-for-like comparison. Secondly it doesn’t make sense to me because I don’t understand why market cap should be related to media reactions to volatility.

I don’t see what cohesive theory underlies your claim that a big ‘market cap’ is required for the media to care about volatility.

I was saying Apple is the S&P 500 and Bitcoin is a random midsize company - it was an analogy. No analogy is perfect though, and you can certainly poke holes in mine (as you have).

> Secondly it doesn’t make sense to me because I don’t understand why market cap should be related to media reactions to volatility.

Because larger amounts of money matter more than smaller amounts of money. That's all. Penny stocks can fluctuate 1000x in a day but nobody cares.

Bigger market caps means bigger market makers with far more liquidity, so an average trade is much smaller in the grand scheme of things. When there isn't as much liquidity and smaller volumes, the market will move more quickly.
He is trying to say that Bitcoin is wildly overvalued.
Last year 2021 the S&P 500 had a large amount of volatility and Bloomberg does report on this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-03/how-to-ha...

It is a lot of volatility, but it's also weird to compare an index to a single security.
some people have different risk appetite
Bitcoin's at the same price today as it was on this date last year. Wen moon?

Srsly: $40.8K on 8th Jan 2021 and 2022 https://www.statmuse.com/money/ask/bitcoin+price+jan+2021

Adjusting for inflation that is actually a loss year to date.

S&P 500 was up 26 percent last year.

You can't take one snapshot in time and compare it when the two assets exhibit wildly different volatility characteristics. You are capturing Bitcoin's price when it is down.

If we were to do the same thing at the end of the year last year we could say it went up 70% in 2021 (and that was after a big drop from it's ATH) whereas the S&P only went up 26%. See how that isn't the whole story?

> You can't take one snapshot in time and compare it when the two assets exhibit wildly different volatility characteristics.

I mean, you certainly can if you're taking the "buy and hold" approach, or hodl amongst the cool kids. It simply points out that buy and hold crypto is not guaranteed to be better than something like SPY, and the excess volatility is maybe not a good thing?

The highest possible returns != what investors actually achieve.

Pointing out that at the peak it was up higher than SPY, even though it is no longer up higher, and considering that a good thing seems very odd. It would also only relevant if you're able to know when things are at a top and bottom. Did you sell any bitcoin you owned when up 70% and, if so, have we reached a bottom when it is optimal to buy back in?

> Did you sell any bitcoin you owned when up 70% and, if so, have we reached a bottom when it is optimal to buy back in?

This is the ultimate investing question. What signals a top or a bottom? How do I sell just before the price falls and buy just before it climbs back up? Is there even an answer? There must be since there are literal trading bots out there making millions.

If you put a regular amount into the S&P500 you'll make millions over time, no need to be a bot.

At some point of course that has to end, as everything based on exponential growth does.

>It simply points out that buy and hold crypto is not guaranteed to be better than something like SPY

There are no guarantees in life, much less in financial markets of any kind. The whole concept of markets is that different investors make different assessments of different assets.

S&P 500 doubled in 5 years

Bitcoin is 41 times higher in the same time period

Nasdaq is down 6% in a week

Bitcoin is up 4% in the last year, it was 40,254 on the 9th Jan 2020, and currently 41,766. Its lowest point in Dec 2019 was 6,540.05. Dec 2020 was 17,619.53. Dec 2021 was 42,874.62.

None of that really tells you anything about the relative worth or the direction.

And up x,xxx% the past 5 years. People have short memories. Heck, in 2020 it was only around $9k.
I suppose short memory is good when remembering is painful.

I remember when ETH was about $100. BNB was $40 months before I had enough spare money to enter this market. I have one family member who once held several bitcoins but sold them at $70.

I went up x,xxx% from basically nothing though. Going up the same percentage in the next five years from the current price is another story. I wonder if this might be contributing to the popularity of NFTs as a new, alternative thing for people to risk their money on.
In modern times people want fast results. Bitcoin is not up to this task.
What kind of fast results are you actually looking for? Is sub-second transactions not good enough for the vast majority of applications?
0% increase in 1 year is too slow; given the sub-second transaction delays people expect better results, faster.
You may be confusing the bitcoin network conditions with price action.

iirc, there were some mainstream and social media stories of the recent "events" concerning the country of Kazakhstan regarding banning of bitcoin mining and the political unrest (and or violence that ensued). The blip you experienced may have been a direct result from this.

It was a little joke, but probably not funny to those hodling BTC
To those people bitcoin going down is cause for celebration. It's a sale and they get to buy more for cheap.

The real joke is the fact there are far better coins out there that nobody cares about just because they're not BTC.

"..from centralized exchanges" should be appended to "..they get to buy more for cheap."
I think it would be funny for those HODLing their mined BTC but not those whom are HODLing their bought BTC. :)
You may be confusing a joke with a WHOOOOOOOOOOOSH!
It’s quite possibly because of omicron speculation and uncertainty related to the virus.
Actually, Bitcoin is lateral, not below me.