[seba_dos1]

> The question is what is the logical choice given this information

Not enough information is given to make any choice, and there's no intention to give it, since this is not a puzzle. It has no correct answer. It just mentions that some non-financial motivations are at play, but does not specify them (because it's not needed to make a point). You can't make a decision, because you don't have the data.

> The non-refundable cost you sunk into two things in the past is relevant to the decision of which one to keep because you can use it to predict future prices.

You don't have enough information to assume that, or that any future prices will be relevant at all. In fact, the article explicitly says that this cost is "irrelevant" - which makes sense, since you may have no intention to rebook that cancelled trip at all!