[npinsker]

I wrote a brute-force minimax solver (minimizing expected guesses) which tracks with this information:

  SOARE 3.45
  RAISE 3.46
  ARISE 3.47
  SERAI 3.52

Most 'reasonable' words seem within 0.1 or so of the optimal strategy. I think the second word is likely far more important than the first.

[fsckboy]

but soare isn't a word