[rovolo]

I'm using the data at https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data . It shows the inversion you've mentioned.

- Cases: vaccinated = 100/100k, unvaccinated = 80/100k

Vaccinations reduce the severity of the disease. If you get exposed, vaccination will prompt your body to deal with the infection more quickly when there's less of the virus. This can, but doesn't necessarily, clear the infection before it's detected. You can see the protective effect in Ontario by looking at different severities.

- Population 12+: vaccinated = 88%, unvaccinated = 9%

- Hospital non-ICU: vaccinated = 65%, unvaccinated = 25%

- Hospital ICU: vaccinated = 40%, unvaccinated = 50%

- Deaths aren't reported by vaccination status on this page

[dukeofdoom]

Yes, but this is snapshot at this current time, in a changing situation. The hospitalization rate for the vaccinated has gone up by a lot in the last month. Long term we don't really know how things will go, and if there will be more vaccinated people in hospital in ICU than unvaccinated.

One plausible explanation I heard is that the immune system does not recognize the virus, but rather the cells infected by the virus. The immune system uses T-cells to destroy those infected cells. The drop in effectiveness of each successive vaccine, suggests a diminishing ability for the immune system to recognize the infected cells. And its not really clear if repeated boosting will solve this problem. I think of it as a ai that's been over optimized to recognize only the training data.

Don't really have a background to evaluate if this is a valid explanation of why we are seeing this inversion.