[ericsilly]

One yet-to-be-mentioned element here is the dynamic of developer preference and resistance. As systems bifurcate into relatively cookie-cutter "lego"-like technical components (the Wixification of the entire stack via cloud, frameworks and no-code), vs the heavy-lift coding to make the framework "legos" themselves, a lot of the fun development is going to go away (development with a direct end-user feedback loop and the reward of solving some real-world problem). This dynamic also eliminates a good entry point for developers (basic apps and web sites), which allow them to build the knowledge to create and love those more sophisticated re-useable legos, because they understand the true pain of solving those original problems without them. I predict a big, negative impact on the future population of developers arriving to software from "creative" entry points, like design, marketing, or finance, because the bridge will be gone. What will be left are only formally educated engineers.