Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by jack_squat 1634 days ago
Doesn't that all make sense? I'm not sure what the issue is here.

The statistic that vaccinated people 18-59 are dying at twice the rate presumably true, so of course the reuters article doesn't deny it. The Reuters article presents a totally believable explanation, which is also in the original article's comments. What they are saying is that this can be true for the age range 18-59, but simultaneously not be true for any specific age brackets within that range.

This is called Simpson's paradox. The explanation is that vaccination rates are higher among the elderly than among the young, and that the elderly have a higher baseline rate of death, and the Reuters article breaks out the numbers to demonstrate this. What's the big mystery exactly?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

2 comments

Simpson’s paradox is fascinating. If the result above does not seem intuitive, think of an extremely simplified version: imagine that half of everyone in their 50’s is vaxxed and no one on their 20’s is. Next imagine that of 1000 people in their 50’s, 100 of 500 vaxxed people die from non-covid sources, 100 of 500 unvaxxed people die from non-covid sources, plus 50 unvaxxed people in their 50’s die from covid and no vaxxed people do. And imagine that 0 out of 2000 people in their 20’s die from anything.

150 out of 2500 unvaxxed deaths in 18-59

100 out of 500 vaxxed deaths in 18-59 (higher rate)

But: 150 of 500 unvaxxed deaths in 50-59

100 of 500 vaxxed deaths in 50-59 (lower rate)

It would be true that more vaxxed people died than unvaxxed in the 18-59 age group without the vaccine causing any death, but only because the larger number of surviving young people swamps the higher relative death rates among the higher relative vaxxed elderly.

Yes that explanation is plausible. I replied to another comment below what I take away from that statistic… mainly that vaccine mandates are BS given other factors such as age has such an impact on mortality and spread.
Vaccines reduce the spread significantly, ergo, the mandates for even young people have a dramatic effect in reducing risk for everyone.

They are not BS.

Do you have a source showing vaccines significantly reduce the spread of the current dominant variant?