[gremlinsinc]

Asteroids, and super volcanoes are on too big a timescale to really predict w/ a lot of accuracy when it's "due" imho....

Carrington-level events though are roughly every 100-150 years, of that we're pretty certain and it's been like 160 years since the last one.

A Cascadia Tsunami apparently hits every 240 years (on average according to VERY good records from Japan), the last one would've decimated basically half the state of Washington.... probably most of Seattle, etc.. not sure about if it goes up to Vancouver, etc...

As far as things that are due to hit us, besides global warming related catastrophes, I think Carrington and Cascadia Tsunami's probably have the most possibility of occurring soonest. Carrington is the scariest though... as it basically affects everyone globally and sets us back to the 1800s..

[supermatt]

Gamblers fallacy. A 1:150 chance of a Carrington class event happening in any given year does not mean that one will happen every 150 years.

Earthquakes (e.g. cascadia) are different. Tectonic strain is quantifiable.

[bburrito]

There is going to be a geomagnetic flip of the poles within the next 15 years.

[gremlinsinc]

I wonder if the waning geomagnetic poles... change how well the magnetosphere protects us from solar flares, and maybe it opens the way for stronger storms to get through...

[bburrito]

That is exactly what happens. In fact, it happens in cycles. There is the sunspot activity cycle which is like every 12 years. Then there is a cycle at around 100 years that has been identified. But then ere are also cycles at even larger time scales around 1500, 6000, and 12000 years. With the 12000 year cycles being the most intense. And we know this because the polar direction and intensity of the magnetic field are recorded at the time a lava deposit solidifies. Which as we know is an ongoing never ending process; there is ALWAYS lava flowing somewhere on earth.