[quirkot]

In 2003 there was a major blackout that started in Ohio and took out the power grid for most of Ohio east to New York and up into Ontario. Around 55 million people lost power. This is the same as a hypothetical EMP (blackouts without structural damage) because there is no real EMP, just a full on nuclear bomb. Within 2 days the entire grid was back up like nothing happened. No civilization collapsed. This is fear mongering nonsense.

[panarky]

> No civilization collapsed

The fear mongers would have you believe that we're just one glitch away from the destruction of civilization, widespread violence and cannibalism in your cul-de-sac.

But we have major catastrophes fairly often, and time after time we see people helping people, not purging them.

[boboche]

I think while ressources are available, localized event (even major) and its not world-ending, this is true and a beacon of hope in humanity.

However when ressources are no longer produced, people get hungry and desperate with no lights at the end of the tunnel, i.e. real game-changing global catastrophe, I hope I am wrong (and hope even more to never test that theory), but I doubt this would bring the best of humanity overall.

Fear mongers have one good thing: if you can reply with facts and destroy their theories, nutcase aliens mind controlling aside, it means that it has been studied or acknowledged. Simple dismissal might not be the best way to fix holes or anxious bodies.

[T-A]

> This is the same as a hypothetical EMP (blackouts without structural damage)

This is NOT the same as a hypothetical EMP.

An EMP could potentially fry everything from small electronic devices (like those which control the flows in oil and gas pipelines and in chemical plants, and the circuit breakers meant to protect the grid from power surges) to the about 2500 large power transformers at the core of the US grid, which would take years to replace even under ideal conditions.

https://worldif.economist.com/article/13526/electromagnetic-...

[collaborative]

If I recall correctly the reason for that blackout was faulty desing of appliances. In particular, old home appliances like dish washers were spitting out out-of-phase electricity back into the network which if done in sufficient numbers collapses the grid. As a result of that event regulation was introduced to prevent this but I don't remember how

[josephcsible]

Civilization didn't collapse because we got the grid back on relatively quickly. If 55 million people didn't have power for weeks on end, civilization just might collapse.

[EnlightenedBro]

Well, the idea is that most people will run out of basic supplies 2 weeks into the blackout, which will force everyone to turn to violence to survive. I agree that 2 days is not a big deal.

In a dying society like that however, it will be almost impossible to allocate labor to fix issues that caused the blackout, because as time goes on, violence on the streets increases. Weeks on end without food, water, heat, sanitation, order on the streets, weeks without ability to call or text anyone, people's trust into the government disappears, as does the trust into the currency of the country.

In a scenario like that, society eventually hits the point of no return.

[quirkot]

My point is that a blackout won't last 2 weeks unless you've got major structural damage to the electrical system. We had a dang near worst case scenario (of no damage) and it was only 2 days

Also, I present Hurricane Maria hitting Puerto Rico as hard evidence that when the power is out for 2 weeks the society doesn't descend into violence

[EnlightenedBro]

Well, when you are able to pull in labor, food and other supplies from the unaffected areas, it's a much different scenario.

In the event where the entire US goes into the blackout for 2 weeks, things will be different. Sure, maybe not an apocalyptic anarchy on the streets, but there will be unrest. Because most people don't have extensive food and water reserves at the place of their residence.

The larger point I was trying to make is that things will be getting exponentially worse as time goes on, and the point of no return will be hit eventually, if we are not able to address the issue quickly.

[quirkot]

The entire US physically cannot have one big blackout. There are 3 separate interconnects: East, West, and Texas. There are DC ties which connect them, but even if the tie was left open it's not enough to cascade the blackout.

To your larger point: sure if power was out over large swaths of the US for weeks on end, things would be difficult. But the power outage wouldn't be the problem, the problem would be whoever is causing the power to keep going back out (or the radioactive fallout from a nuclear war in the EMP scenario)

[wrycoder]

It would take months to replace some of the larger transformers, if they were destroyed by EMP or coordinated sabotage. And, there aren’t many spares available - lead time is very long.

[mdellavo]

people were without power for over two weeks after hurricane Sandy - no unrest