| 1. He does mean GW 2. Orsted will average around 60% of nameplate, with wide but predictable variance[1] 3. Nuclear averages 90% of nameplate, with a mix of planned and sudden large outages [op. cit.] 4. Nuclear has higher running costs but longer capital lifetime 5. We need to decarbonize aggressively on multiple timescales: get solar+storage (quickest), wind+storage(reasonably quick), nuclear (s-l-o-w), and advanced geothermal (in development; s-l-o-w then maybe reasonably quick) all deployed. 6. The broad path forward for industrialized societies is solar everywhere, TWh of hour-scale storage, TW of wind, and ~25% of electricity provided by "clean firm": some combination of nuclear, geothermal, H2, and fossil gas with CCS. 7. Electricity consumption will grow faster than the economy in industrialized societies, and as fast as the economy in the currently underserved global south (~3B people). Roughly 10TW today, 20TW in 2040, who knows after that. [1] https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/hornsea-spawns-... |