[throwaway984393]

"I use AWS for a lot of things, but I strongly regard the cloud as just another tool, to be used as occasion demands, rather than because the high priests say you should."

He's right. Evaluate your needs and use it if it makes sense. Not a very controversial opinion, I think!

The problem is, how do you evaluate your needs if you aren't an expert in either self-hosting or using managed services (AWS)? I think you should treat it like going to a doctor: get two opinions from two different senior professionals in two different specializations. And definitely make an assessment based on real numbers. Try to get ballpark figures from similar-sized businesses about their costs (capex/opex, infrastructure, staff) and requirements (expertise, time-to-market, FRs/NFRs, regulations, etc). Building a business is a huge thing, and how you use technology can either be a hindrance or an accelerator, but it has to fit your use case.