[PaulHoule]

Go read the sources I point to.

In the case of Franchise a computer does an interview of one voter and then calculates who the president should be.

In real life, if 538 was perfect at simulating the election there would be no need to have the election.

The point of Insider Baseball is that ‘horse-race’ coverage and coverage that pretends to give you an insider view of the campaign as the candidates and their staff see it completely avoid any real discussion of who the voters are, what they really want, what really motivates them, what alternatives they really have, etc.

538 in perfect irony applies the techniques and terminology of sports betting to politics.

[noduerme]

The funny thing is, they're just as often wrong with their sports predictions. No serious sports wagerer I know would ever rely on 538 to make their picks. Gamblers understand that touts serve two masters. Apparently, punters are less gullible than political pundits when it comes to believing that a set of chosen stats represents a neutral, scientific prediction.

[lazide]

Everyone likes to hear what they want to hear - until the bill comes anyway.

[georgeecollins]

Predictions are hard, particularly about the future.