[jdavis703]

There are some people that are suspicious of polling averages and models have under-performed Trump vs. the official vote totals. They think it’s a form of “suppression polling” where the opponents supporters are demoralized by a conspiracy of weak polling numbers that suppress turnout.

I believe there are simpler and more convincing explanations for polling errors that seemed consistently biased against Trump, but some people are happy to jump to far fetched conspiracy theories.

[VictorPath]

One counter-vailing fact is Republican internal polls showed Trump losing up until election night in 2016. Polls they did for themselves, which they did not share at the time, showed him losing.

Aside from this, to influence opinions with sharing polling information, one just needs to change the question, or the audience, or both. "Should the US seek peaceful resolutions with Russia" will get a different answer than "Should Biden oppose Russia's military buildup on Ukraine's border". You can tailor the question to the answer, and have Americans either supporting or opposing abortion, or whatever.

Also, a poll of everyone will yield different results from a poll of, say, likely voters. You have to look to who is polled along with what is polled.

With these things done, there is little need to fudge the numbers, other polling organizations can ask the same question to the same demographic and get similar answers.

[pessimizer]

Why associate the comment you replied to with Trump, and why is associating that comment to Trump enough to dismiss criticism of publishing continuous polls as "far-fetched conspiracy theories"?

There have certainly been massive polling failures (and obvious push polling) in elections over the past decade that can be discussed rather than being dismissed for the sake of partisanship. The organizations who actually do the polling discuss these issues constantly without accusing each other of being deluded.

[noduerme]

I think the simplest explanation is that pollsters are from the media/elite; when Trumpers get a phone call from a pollster, it's either their chance to "own the libs" by lying, or they're embarrassed to admit their reactionary beliefs so they say what they think a centrist or liberal would say. Then they vote for the furthest right wing loonies they can find.

You can see this kind of thing in practice if you've ever been a non-white person in a redneck bar.