[cowpig]

I think that a lot of advice from VCs is bad, but only because a risk profile that makes sense for an individual VC investment is completely reckless for that individual.

Assuming utility grows linearly with wealth (which it doesn't: a $100M exit is not going to improve your life 20x more than a $5M exit, which makes this worse), the kelly criterion[1] puts the amount of your personal resources you should optimally invest into something that has a small chance at mooning very low. Which is what the VC is doing. But the founder is not.

But ok I'm on a tangent and I think I disagree with your post otherwise.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion