[patio11]

Don’t mention this in the software industry especially startups, the situation is almost the complete opposite with demand for qualified engineers more than twice the supply.

At the price startups are willing to pay, naturally. I imagine demand exceeds supply for doctors willing to work for $30k + equity + copious free beer, too.

I know a lot of people feel that $80k or $120k for developers is quite generous. It may well be generous, but if you can't hire someone for it, it is by definition below market. You know all those articles we've read about structural change? Here's another structural change: the market clearing price for engineers may soon durably transition to that of e.g. management consultants or lawyers rather than that of e.g. HR clerks or marketing directors.

[Locke1689]

I hope so, but the problem I see is that new grads (I include myself here) are willing to work for 80k, while it's not that much of a stretch to say that the best graduates will be almost as productive in a few years as they will be in 7 or 8 years. That doesn't, however, automatically mean a commensurate salary increase, so developer salaries are kept perpetually lower than they should be. How can employers and employees adapt to this bifurcated market?

[patio11]

If X is repeatedly cheaper than what it should be, you should buy it instead of selling it.

Anyhow, if I'm reading you right, you think that the best college grad in 2019 will be about as good as you are in 2019, causing your salary to decrease? If I'm reading that right, you will have a very interesting eight years in industry and not worry about new college graduates ever again.

Generic career advice for every engineer: broaden skill set, get reassigned to a profit center, negotiate aggressively on comp.

[Locke1689]

Ah, sorry poor wording. What I mean is that a developer's skill increases non-linearly with experience. That is, there is a sharp spike after only a few years of working in industry. I won't argue that skill doesn't continue to increase with experience, but I think the difference between my skill in 9 years may be proportionally lower than the skill difference now and in, say, 2 years. However, employers generally seem to work on linear experience models, so if I start at $80k now, in 2 years I may get a simple cost of living + (hand-wavy) 10% salary increase, whereas if your assertion is correct I should probably be getting paid closer to the controlling market salary of >$120k. Do you think the proper way to handle this is for new developers to quit after 2 years?

[patio11]

Oh, if that's what you're worried about, a) you're right, employers routinely exploit wage anchoring of employees already on the payroll, b) I don't know if I agree that devs slow down in growth after two years, and c) regardless of whether they do or not, quit and demand wages commensurate with the value you bring to the company.

I used to work for $30k prior to discovering that there exist better options. Now I try to be the little Internet fairy whispering to young devs "There are better options!" ;)

[tptacek]

In 1994, when I first entered the job market, $80k/year was a ridiculous number, reserved for people with unattainable-sounding skills like "PowerBuilder". Point being: look at the trend line, not the spot price. New grads today will accept $80k. Five years from now, if the market retains this level of heat, will they continue to do so?

[tyty]

To be clear, $80k in 1994 is roughly $116k today with inflation - probably still on the very high end of entry level.

[tptacek]

Entry level? $80k was for a spectacularly senior position. $35k sounds about right for degreed entry level dev jobs in '94.

[m0nastic]

It's not quite equivalent, but in '98, I was thrilled when I got a job as a network engineer for 40k (in Boston). At the time it seemed like more money than I knew what to do with (I very quickly became much more imaginative).

[cema]

Boston area tends to have relatively low salaries, both compared to competing areas (like the Silicon Valley, NYC, and Washington-Baltimore corridor) and relative to the cost of living (real estate, primarily). The difference is not trivial.

[rmc]

Software is more important (and valuable) to the world now than in 1994.