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by vosper 1646 days ago
But again, that’s not the scenario I’m talking about

> If Omicron turns out to have better health outcomes than Delta, even with the increased transmissibility

1 comments

The problem is that sentence is still too vague. If you make a more quantitative statement it would be easier to engage with.

Requiring hospitalization but 10X higher probability compared to delta for surviving hospitalization can be described as "to have better health outcomes than Delta". But if transmissibility is higher it can still overwhelm the hospital infrastructure and cause more deaths by making beds a scarce commodity not only for those affected by covid but also others who need a hospitalization bed.

Note that a multiplicative factor reduction in the probability of surviving, becomes just a time shift during exponential growth phase of the spread. With a doubling rate of 2 days, a 1/16 factor is a delay of 8 days. It shifts the curve, does not flatten it, at least not at the off-peak regime.