[volkse]

It has been discussed many times before - the issue with the SA data is that 80% of the population have been exposed to the virus (either had it or have been vaccinated) so the deaths not budging there can be very misleading for countries with lower vaccination rates.

[arn]

The other related factor is omicron is more likely (than other variants) to infect someone who has been vaccinated or previously exposed to covid. So the number of infected low risk individuals is higher, than with previous strains.

The denominator is higher than if, let’s say, delta was let loose in the same population at the same time.

[wholinator2]

To clarify, omicron is more likely to infect vaccinated or exposed individuals _than the other variants_. NOT omicron is more likely to infect vaccinated people than non-vaccinated people.

The wording startled me until I understood the intended meaning.

[arn]

Correct. Will clarify.

[toolz]

South Africa is well under average vaccination rate globally. Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus? Of course they've been exposed to the virus, that's exactly why it's interesting to see how their deaths follow cases.

There's no indication that the first world, with much higher vaccination rates won't fare better than South Africa, which seems to be faring exceptionally well relative to other case spikes.

[SideburnsOfDoom]

> Also what do you mean by they've been exposed to the virus?

"have been exposed to the virus" usually means something like "immune system isn't totally unprepared, but has had contact with this virus before (or a proxy via vaccination)".

In South Africa, it is mostly via getting COVID-19 in the Alpha or Delta waves.

Yes, over 70% of South Africans have had it:

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bloomberg/news/2021-12-14-ove...

[JPKab]

So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing.

The science has been super clear on this for a long time. The problem is that the CDC and NIH, the grand tradition of federally funded science, have chosen not to study anything that conflicts with the directives of their organizations. They haven't bothered to study natural immunity and have left it to other countries like Israel.

Instead they pretend like it doesn't exist and claim that they don't have science to support it (exactly like the federal government did with marijuana in the past) because they never bothered to fund studies.

When you factor in the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated, well over 70% of the US population has been exposed to the virus in one form or another.

I caught the virus in the alpha wave. It's been infuriating having the federal government pretend like t cell immunity isn't a thing. For my age group it absolutely is.

[SideburnsOfDoom]

> So now we're going to suddenly admit that natural immunity is a thing.

A thing that gives some benefit to a lot of South African who also later got sick with COVID-19-Omicron, some of those were hospitalised, and some of those died. So clearly not a magic wand that prevents Omicron entirely.

A benefit obtained at huge human costs in previous waves, which vaccination would have blunted.

You can tell the bad takes because of the accusatory tone - Who is going to "suddenly admit" I don't even know who is being accused here? And the simplistic "all or nothing" thinking - the "is a thing or isn't" idea. Medicine is not Boolean logic. None of this is binary, boolean, on-off. neither vaccination nor prior infection are a guarantee.

[JPKab]

The United States Federal Government doesn't acknowledge that naturally conferred immunity for COVID exists in any policy. They admit that it's "something to be studied" and ignore all science from other nations. Meanwhile, most European nations have acknowledged this in the form of policy. The Dutch just (in the last few days) extended their green pass eligibility based on previous infection from 180 days to 365 days based on the recommendation of their public health authorities.

The above policy is pushed in the exact Medical Boolean Logic you just attacked in your comment. They push policies that pretend the vaccinated can't spread it and that unvaccinated (previously infected or not) are all dangerous to be around. Boolean logic. They deliberately avoided informing the public about the extremely steep age gradient of risk for COVID infection, pushing that no matter your age or health status, COVID is super dangerous to you. Boolean logic. CNN has had a different story of the same variety fixed to their front page for over a year: A story featuring a person who isn't old getting really sick from the virus who wasn't vaccinated. They deliberately highlight the statistical outliers to push the boolean logic that YOU ARE AT RISK FROM COVID NO MATTER YOUR AGE/HEALTH. Yep, and I'm also at risk of getting struck by lightning when I take a walk on a sunny day. They push the lie that previous infection provides no immunity. My father's physician told him the other day that "natural immunity from COVID doesn't exist." Boolean logic.

You're attacking me for "bad takes"? Are we on Twitter here? I utterly despise that kind of dialogue, and the meta-analysis of my commentary as if I'm part of some super-entity of horrible humans who fall into a collective tribe to be attacked and expelled from all polite conversation. I'm a lifelong Democratic voter, I drive an electric car, I think climate change is bad, support women's rights, support labor unions, I grow marijuana and donate to medical patients and no, I'm not a "simplistic all or nothing" thinker. You've done this in other threads, and clearly view yourself morally superior to those who disagree with you on this specific issue.

One thing to add: I've voted Democratic since my first vote for Al Gore in 2000. I voted for Biden in 2020. I will never vote Democrat again. I've switched my status to Independent. This party no longer deserves my support, and I look forward to voting for anyone not in it in the future. They aren't the party of science anymore. The Republicans are nutbags, but at least they don't interfere with my life and force me to get a shot i don't want or need. I caught COVID, I recovered, and I'm done. Fuck anyone that wants to force me to get a shot I won't benefit from. As if there's a single fucking record of someone catching COVID a second time and suffering more severe symptoms than with the first infection.

The vaccine mandate turned me into a single issue voter. No government will ever tell me I have to inject something into my body to be allowed to engage in commerce. Especially a government like the US, which doesn't do a fucking thing to pay for my health care. They have no fucking right. If I get myocarditis from the shot, like a 35 year old Googler who lives on my street did (he now has permanent scarring on his heart), the bill is on ME. Fuck that. He can't even hike with me anymore, and will suffer life-long side-effects. And the bill for the treatment is on him.

[crummy]

From memory, SA has 3.3mil confirmed cases, and an estimated 7.8x total when you include unconfirmed. So roughly 75 percent of the population have caught covid. Plus vaccinations, that adds up to a lot of mild reinfections.

[Auracle]

He means they were already exposed to another variant so they have some immunity.

That immunity may very well work better than the vaccines on omicron - I don’t think we’re far enough in to it to have a great idea of that yet.

[BikiniPrince]

They have something like 23% vaccination rate. It is about as raw as it is going to get.

My friends who have it now indicate it is very mild.

[andybak]

Good job we've got your friends as a data point.

[kelnos]

I think parent meant that they have a high (prior) infection rate, not exposure rate.

[cpncrunch]

Similar situation in Denmark as well. Huge number of omicron infections, but deaths haven't budged and number of covid patients in hospitals are actually decreasing.

[tome]

This comment links to Reuters, which says "Denmark reports its largest number of coronavirus-related deaths since the start of the pandemic: 57". Where are you getting your data?

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29654645

[cpncrunch]

From google's covid data. It doesn't seem to have today's update yet.

[richarme]

Your comment is factually untrue. 17 people died yesterday. Didn't have this high number of deaths since last winter before vaccines, and from the chart deaths seems to have increased 10-fold compared to a month or two ago. I'd like to see a source for your claim that numbers in hospitals are decreasing.

[cpncrunch]

No, my comment wasn't "factually untrue". The 7-day rolling average is steady at 9 or 10 according to the covid data on google. It hasn't changed (at least, up until yesterday's data). Things may change now, as there were 57 deaths just announced today.

> I'd like to see a source for your claim that numbers in hospitals are decreasing.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29644613

[tanseydavid]

Can anyone point to an official worldwide number of deaths attributable to Omicron?

[stillicidious]

Such a number would be difficult to interpret, or entirely meaningless, without understanding the classification methods and policies of each constituent region. This also holds true of overall death statistics.

Finally with local statistics, you still have political dramatics like https://twitter.com/dancohen3000/status/1473480933579923456

[exdsq]

Take this with a heap of salt but I looked for this figure yesterday and found it to be 12 in several sources, but hard to find the official figures. Share them if you do find them!

[JPKab]

Isn't the same percentage in the US exposed, either via vaccine or previous infection?

[hammock]

Wait, natural immunity is real?

[lkbm]

Yes, there's definitely some degree natural immunity. There's mixed evidence as to whether it's stronger[0] or weaker[1] than full vaccination, but it's definitely better than nothing.

[0] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34735425/

[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.12.21263461v...

[zerocount]

Sure is. There's millions of us walking around without getting shots every six months.

[SketchySeaBeast]

Via previous infection? And if so, you're not concerned about waning protection? It would appear that people even with previous wild/delta infections have hit or miss immunity to omicron.

[jimmygrapes]

You gotta remember that the vast majority of infections are asymptomatic or mild. We focus on the ones that aren't, for a number of valid reasons, but this also skews the average person's risk tolerance and awareness toward thinking that there's life altering danger in each infection. There's millions walking about who think it's a fake virus because they got a headache and a sore throat for a day while being told that they are at risk of intubation and a range of "long covid" symptoms, and this doesn't meet their experience or that of their entire friend and family circle. Yeah, lots of families also experienced the opposite, but you'd probably be hard pressed to convince those ones that it's a mild disease. Thing is, it's both.

[SketchySeaBeast]

But that doesn't address the questions about natural immunity at all. Assuming you already had it and that you were 100% fine and you're now forever immune seems extraordinarily foolish.

[andybak]

Please don't post comments like this. It's impossible to work out what your actual point is

[zerocount]

I think it's clear he's referring to the fact that natural immunity has protected most of South Africa and thus, the world is freaking out over Omicron. As was suggested by a doctor in South Africa at the very beginning, which was ignored by governments. Of course, excuses for the South African data not aligning with the whole "vaccines are the only answer" narrative are now being created.