[robocat]

> but I don't see the link manager thing turning into a billion dollar unicorn.

I suspect for every $1000M unicorn, there are 1000x $1M businesses.

1. Many of those 1000 $1M businesses can be very derivative, but with some focus that is just too specific for competition (vertical, market, # of clients, feature focus, whatever). That link manager could easily be a yummy small business.

2. I suspect one can make as much money *adjusted-for-risk* with a $1M businesss as one can trying to make a $1000M business (cap-table and yearly profits are also often ignored, and one might make little especially if one is not the founder of a unicorn).

[zerbin]

Sure, then I guess the question is how likely any of that is and if we’re adjusting for risk, what’s the opportunity cost vs just working for someone else? My guess is that in 10+ years of saving or investing zero dollars, each subsequent year of dream chasing is going to have an opportunity cost so high that the big payout ending would be the only thing that could balance the scales

[robocat]

The “unicorn plan” is highly leveraged, high risk, and founders ignore the Kelly Criterion for their costs (especially their time).

I would love to see the average return for the founders of ycombinator startups. Given the power law (Pareto) distribution, it can probably be calculated by knowing the number of founders from 2005 to 2010, and some rough estimates of returns for the major ycombinator success stories.

VC as an fund category has poor returns (“the Cambridge Associates U.S. Venture Capital Index averaged just 5.06% per year between 2000 and 2020”). Also VC returns compared with founders equity: have higher seniority (preferential), lower volatility, diversity, and the chance of getting the necessary outlier success story returns.

The median/average founder in the market is a loser.

Do a funded startup for social status, to learn, to gamble, or for kicks. Don’t become a funded founder because it makes financial sense for an individual.