I’m not so sure 1 and 2 preclude 3. Is it not increasingly likely you get it even if vaccinated, especially with Omicron, thereby suffering the increased risk of all three (four with booster?)?
Its also not a guarantee you get Covid. Current stats are that 50 / 330 million of the USA population have had Covid. So comparing the risk factors of the vaccine to covid directly is a bit misleading, IMO.