[eloisius]

I'm curious how you know the real sentiment in Taiwan, and also how you arrived at the conclusion that everyone in east Asia knows China will attempt unification before the next election? I live in Taiwan, and I've never met anyone that said fuck the U.S. for not offering real support. I've heard people acknowledge that the U.S. doesn't sell Taiwan the latest defense tech, but are also aware that Taiwan is a rich country and can afford to pay for its own defense. The U.S. shouldn't discourage Taiwan from developing its own capabilities.

As for invasion within the next two years, I suppose none but some inner circle in China really knows, but that it's a guaranteed fact is not a consensus belief here. If it was true, people and money would be pouring out of Taiwan. From the outside, Taiwan sounds like a besieged island expecting incoming missiles any moment, but life is typical here. People are concerned with real estate prices, getting a promotion at work, construction noise in the neighborhood, climate change, etc. You'd think a place with such grim prospects about the future wouldn't have time to worry about animal welfare or environmentalism. However, any given weekend you can find thousands of volunteers going to clean up litter on beaches, or working in animal shelters.

[noirchen]

Do you watch Taiwanese political talk show? Basically guests from both sides in the shows agree that the next election is going to be important. They do openly expressed their anger over the position of the Biden administration. At least for some people across the straits (maybe we can add some people in Japan and Singapore) they are expecting something big to happen between the end of the winter olympics and the 2024 election.

In Taiwan you see Taiwan is not grim, for the geopolitics people they are predicting big change, but from the outside it appears that Taiwan is doomed. This, if you think about it, is really the biggest problem for the DPP government: ordinary Taiwanese people do not really care if they are reunified, while some learned people are worried, and the US can do nothing. The day after the US fled Afghanistan, high rank government officials told the press that "we are not Afghanistan". Yes, no other countries want to occupy Kabul except for the yankees.

And why would the economics be bad if China finally annex Taiwan? Cash from China has been flowing into Taiwan for 40 years, and the rich in Taiwan knows that all too well. Internationally sanction? Do you think who in the world is in bad need of Chinese products now? Taiwanese cannot even count on their leaders. Legislators and local government leaders have always been able to send someone (or in person) to visit their family graves in China and the Chinese government permits it. In Chinese culture, that speaks more than their public speeches.

[eloisius]

> Basically guests from both sides in the shows agree that the next election is going to be important

Every election in every country at any time is the most important decision we've ever faced, according to political analysts. Talking heads isn't a great way to gauge popular sentiment. I won't be surprised if _something_ happens, and I don't really know what people in Japan or Singapore think, but at least here, I would expect the atmosphere to be much darker if people were expecting an invasion by 2024.

> ordinary Taiwanese people do not really care if they are reunified

Ordinary Taiwanese care immensely, and that is reflected in the strong support for DDP. Not even KMT are indifferent towards unification, they're just pro-status quo, and they still can't catch a break lately.

> would the economics be bad if China finally annex Taiwan?

The per-capita GDP in Taiwan is ~$26k, while in China it's only $10k. If there was a successful unification, it's unlikely that Taiwan would be permitted to remain twice as rich as the rest of China. TSCM and other tech would most likely be relocated to Shenzhen, just like we're seeing finance get stripped out of Hong Kong. I can't see any circumstance under which Taiwanese people would be better off.

> Cash from China has been flowing into Taiwan for 40 years

This is true. Chinese money has flowed into Taiwan in an attempt to take it by economics rather than force. But, there are now laws restricting Chinese ownership of domestic entities. It's no secret that tons of the money in Taiwan was made using labor in China. Taiwan was a bridge between western markets and brands, and Chinese labor for a long time. Everything from Foxconn to Nike shoes. Most of those factories were opened using Taiwanese capital and management with mainland labor. No idea how all of that will unwind. Fortunately, Chinese labor isn't as cheap as it used to be.