[mlyle]

So, you cite data showing very high efficacy of the vaccine, and are like -- look at it in a few weeks!

Omicron is going to make it worse, but even unboosted folks in South Africa seem to enjoy about 30% efficacy against infection and much higher efficacy against hospitalization and death. But your gossip trumps the data, I guess...

[jmarbach]

"Omicron is making it worse" is gossip to you and a fact for me. That's where we disagree.

[mlyle]

No, Omicron making it worse is a fact that I already ceded.. but we have data that shows low (but still around 30%, not 10%) efficacy against infection with Omicron.. and still high efficacy (70%) against hospitalization and death.

But you say "has proven less than 10% effective" ... because you are making stuff up.

Further, it may be a mistake to assume South Africa predicts exactly what will happen here (30% fully vaccinated, nearly 0 boosted, 20% HIV incidence, vs. 60% fully vaccinated, 25% boosted, 0.3% HIV incidence).