[throwaway2016a]

The efficacy is pretty well proven to be > 90% at this point. Per your comment where you admit the number was pulled out of thin air:

> Anecdotal. You do not need to be a meteorologist to know when it's raining. Look outside.

I'll raise you this... where I am 100% of ICU cases are unvaccinated. Read that again 100%. And over 85% of hospitalizations. And before you say "see, 15% of them were breakthrough cases," please learn about base rates. 65% of the people here are vaccinated so to have only 15% of the hospital cases be vaccinated is even more conclusive.

Please, get out of your bubble. If you think it is 10%... or even 50%... or even 70% you need to do some serious introspection.

Please, actually "look outside"! Because if you spent more than 10 seconds actually looking outside, the efficacy is obvious.

[dang]

Please do not cross into personal attack. That's against the site guidelines and just makes everything worse, regardless of how right you are or feel you are.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

[jmarbach]

I am vaccinated - I believe in the early vaccine's efficacy for stopping serious illness. They have saved many lives.

What I am saying here is that the vaccines were marketed as 90% effective for preventing infection. Was I misunderstanding what was being marketed to me all along?

[jjulius]

Yes, you have misunderstood this all along, and that misunderstanding has already been pointed out to you in this thread[1]. It is effective at preventing COVID-19 infections, which you get after being infected with SARA-CoV-2. It never claimed to prevent infection of the latter.

[1]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29619347

[mlyle]

> It never claimed to prevent infection of the latter.

We had some early data that looked like they were probably about ~70% effective for preventing infection, ~90% effective at preventing symptoms, and >95% effective at preventing severe illness.

These numbers are interesting, because they mean you have less of a chance of becoming infected, but a larger chance, if infected, of being an asymptomatic carrier. So it's difficult to predict the net effect on transmission (probably a benefit, but..)

Now for 2 doses of mRNA vaccine, our best guesses for omicron are more like ~??%, ~30%, and ~70% respectively. Offsetting it slightly is that it looks like omicron may be a bit less likely to cause severe illness at baseline. But, no matter what, this is a big setback.