[lonnydonovan]

Who thinks this is a realistic prediction?

[missedthecue]

I mean... isn't the other option that Covid becomes eradicated? I think that's less likely than becoming endemic.

[giardini]

Doubtful. After all, do other flus disappear?

No, they persist in the population, mutating all the while. They spread more when seasonable changes bring people together and when the weather conditions are more conducive to spread.

Covid is a rhinovirus, as are most common colds. From an infection standpoint, I think of Covid as a really bad version of a cold. Colds never go away, they just come back each year with new mutations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus

The good news: maybe the upsurge of research on Covid will lead to vaccines for colds and other viruses.

[yorwba]

Coronaviruses and rhinoviruses are very different. Compare the classification in the infobox here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr... They're in the same class Pisoniviricetes, but then the taxonomy diverges.

[garmaine]

I think you are saying the same thing?

[giardini]

FWIW here's the URL of article today in the Atlantic that explains what it means to say that "covid may become endemic":

"We’re Not at Endemicity Yet":

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/covid-is-...

[giardini]

Well, no, not really (If I have the interpretation of "you" correctly!)

I was saying covid may become endemic and remain around forever, whereas missedthecue's saying it may be eradicated (which I don't think likely).

But I was dead wrong about covid being a rhinovirus, as yorwba has pointed out below. I've had that wrong for a long time, so need to think about it!