[shadowgovt]

It's an interesting idea but I'm seeing whispers of No True Scotsman fallacy.

It's true, of course, that the end result will be a subset of the people leading and most not (which is an outgrowth of basic specialization theory: if everyone's in charge of coordination and leadership, nobody has time to do the work that needs coordination and leadership). But was the new elite always apart from the followers and supporters, or are the rulers overthrown and during that process some subset of the overthrowers become a new elite due to the needs of specialization? Or, to say it another way: would the "new elite" have ever been an elite if they hadn't won?

George Washington was never commissioned in the British army. Fidel Castro was the bastard son of an immigrant. Had their revolutions not succeeded, would history remember them as elite?

[optimalsolver]

Despite getting obliterated, the upper strata of Confederate society are probably still remembered as being elite.

[shadowgovt]

I would call that the exception that proves the rule because of the "Lost Cause" myth.

There are enough people who think the losing side wasn't the wrong side to keep the legend alive for the Confederate leadership.