[kurthr]

Unfortunately, the mutation differences between Delta and Omicron are more significant than from the early Alpha/Beta which it appears to be more related.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global (see B1.1.529)

It's fitness is driven (in South Africa) largely by the ability to avoid Delta immunity, where a majority of the population has already had that.

Whether Omicron is more mild or not seems still up in the air. Saying that it is more mild in Southern Africa (or a theme park?) where the average age is in the mid 20s (rather than 38 for the whole US) isn't all that relevant since we know symptomatic illness falls more than an order of magnitude between those two.

That said, I've been expecting COVID immunity in the US to look something like Pfizer-Pfizer-Delta-Omicron-Omega since it was clear that we couldn't get more that 60% vaccination. The goal should be keeping the hospitals available for actual catastrophic accidents (heart attacks, car accidents, ladders) rather than complex suicide lottery attempts.

Frankly, at this point it's a choice. You can be a rude nudist/antimasker, a filthy contagion/antivaxer who will spread disease or you can be a regular human who goes about their life. Other than the old/infirm we don't need to protect people from their (bad) decisions any more. I'm glad I'm not immune compromised, 80 years old, or caring for a very young child... it would suck!