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by panphora 1651 days ago
As mostly tech workers, HN readers are woefully disconnected from the lives of everyday people who have been promised a path to if not wealth, at least some kind of comfortable lifestyle by working really hard.

And then the 2008 housing crisis happened. A massive betrayal by the government against its own people. Many people lost their houses, their retirement savings, and their investments. And who did the government bail out and prop up? The bankers, the elite, and the stock market. And this happens over and over again in countless banana republics across the world — the elite propping up the systems that support themselves and not really caring about anyone else.

So now, you have this massive movement against wall street (r/wallstreetbets & GME/AMC), the elite (Trumpism), centralized financial institutions (Bitcoin & DeFi), and the upper class of tech workers (web3). And you wonder why? People were promised a path towards wealth and have had it stolen away from them countless times. Now they are rebelling.

It doesn't matter if — technically & logically — Bitcoin, DeFi, and Web 3 aren't everything they're promising to be... People still need a place to turn to put their hopes that isn't the current system. They've just been burned too many times by it.

But none of this is going to work out in the long run... It'll be just like every other mania throughout history. Tons of investment, tons of apparent growth fueled by FOMO, and then a massive collapse when people realize no one actually cares about this stuff for its intrinsic value... But enough effort & pain & money will have gone into it by then that it will have created a nascent industry that will maybe, one day 10-20 years from now, take over the world and become the new normal.

TLDR: DeFi & Web 3 is an emotional reaction to a system that just doesn't work for most people, not the logical next step towards a better version of the status quo.

6 comments

Sadly for the emotionally invested people if we do get to the point web3 is the new normal is likely to be more of the same just with different faces. Because the people who run web3 and their investors are tech elites and will still be at the top of the totem pole.
"and then a massive collapse when people realize no one actually cares about this stuff for its intrinsic value"

Except for the 1% of products/services that people recognize do have value even after the collapse. What percentage of YCombinator start-ups make it? What's the percentage if you include all rejected applications? What's that percentage if you expand it to "web2" companies that didn't bother to apply to YCombinator or failed before they even got to that point? Or from a more historical lens, what percentage of companies survived the dotcom crash? It's likely that most of the web3 products you see today will inevitably not survive.

I would guess the percentage that survives a massive crash will be 1 or 2 orders of magnitude lower for web3; especially considering web3 is in its infancy. But the number of ideas/products could be higher for various reasons. Until regulation catches up, the number of scams will inevitably be higher as well. The ethical parts of web3 should welcome regulation even though other parts of it never will and probably will never be forced to (depending on where they live).

The narratives that web3 is going to "take over the world and become the new normal." or that it;s all just going to go to zero are 2 extreme views. It's a set of technologies that will find it'sb(large or small) niche and do well there; everywhere else, the advantages that centralization brings will enable those central solutions to win.

> What percentage of YCombinator start-ups make it?

Additionally, what percentage of YCombinator start-ups that make it rely exclusively on infinite investor money?

So basically Amway with technobabble?
Hopefully the people burned by 2008 and the subsequent scams will eventually conclude they need to politically organize rather than participate in ever more ludicrous money grabs.
This.
The web even when is not perfect, definitely works for >the lives of everyday people
You have just described the value of currency. It is inevitable that these will be used, just a matter of when and if you need fiat to achieve your everyday aims.