[rsynnott]

The authorities don't have any special secret knowledge here; they're responding to the (reasonably likely) possibility that it's as dangerous as Delta but will spread much more easily.

Honestly, given the rate of spread, even if it had half the hospitalization risk of Delta it's _still_ terrifying.

[JPKab]

What's the hospitalization rate of delta in the vaccinated? It's pretty low.

At this point, the vast majority of the unvaxxed are younger, lower risk people. The high risk people who aren't vaxxed (fucking idiots) are now highly treatable. We've got at least two, but a third coming soon, potent treatment options that radically reduce hospitalization. The new Pfizer pill is a true game changer, and we already have the monoclonal ABs.

It doesn't appear that the public health authorities or the media are updating their policies based on these new realities. 90% of the people most at risk are vaxxed, and for those who are hospitalized (vaxxed or not) we now have treatments shown in clinical trials to further reduce hospitalization rates by roughly 88-90%. Translation: the hospitals aren't going to get overwhelmed anymore.

Science won, even with a sizable chunk of the populace not wanting the vaccine. People can debate the moral hazard of treating unvaxxed with these new therapeutics, but that's a moral argument, not a practical one. Give them the pill or the infusion, keep them out of an ICU bed, and wag your finger at them later. This pandemic is over, and the fear needs to go with it.

[rsynnott]

The pills won't be available in large quantities for a couple of months.

In countries with high vaccination rates, most ICU beds are now occupied by youngish, largely unvaccinated people. In Ireland, for instance, 60% of covid patients in ICU over the last 5 months have been under 65, and this is _growing_. They have a decent survival rate, but they're still taking up ICU beds, and the pandemic isn't over until they stop doing that.

The pills _may_, if they work as advertised, be the point where we can just stop caring about unvaccinated people. But there are another couple of months to go, even assuming they work as well as expected.

(Also, I think there's at least a decent risk that many anti-vaxers will just refuse to take the pill anyway)